United States Senate elections, 2016

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United States Senate elections, 2016
United States
2014 ←
November 8, 2016
→ 2018
Class 3 (34 of the 100) seats in the United States Senate
51 seats needed for a majority

2016 Senate election map.svg

Senate Seats up for election:
  Democratic incumbent
  Republican incumbent
  Retiring Republican
  Undetermined incumbent
  No election

Majority Leader before election

TBD

Elected Majority Leader

TBD

 
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United States Senate elections, 2016
United States
2014 ←
November 8, 2016
→ 2018
Class 3 (34 of the 100) seats in the United States Senate
51 seats needed for a majority

2016 Senate election map.svg

Senate Seats up for election:
  Democratic incumbent
  Republican incumbent
  Retiring Republican
  Undetermined incumbent
  No election

Majority Leader before election

TBD

Elected Majority Leader

TBD

Elections for the United States Senate will be held on November 8, 2016, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular elections whose winners will serve six-year terms from January 3, 2017 until January 3, 2023. Additionally, special elections may be held to fill vacancies that occur during the 114th United States Congress. Currently, Democrats are expected to have 10 seats up for election, and Republicans are expected to have 24 seats up for election.

The 2016 Presidential election, House elections, and many state and local elections will also be held on this date.

Composition[edit]

The composition of the Senate going into the 2016 election will depend on the result of the 2014 elections. Among the senators up for election in 2016, there will be 10 Democrats, 23 Republicans, and 1 undetermined seat in South Carolina.

There may be some additional changes if senators die or resign. If senators in other classes die or resign between 2010 and 2016, there may be additional special elections between the beginning of the 112th Congress (on January 3, 2011), and the 2012 election. The dates between which the death or resignation of a senator would lead a special election during this time period vary from state to state.

Early predictions[edit]

Seats that are predicted to be competitive include Republican-held seats in Florida, Illinois, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as Democratic-held seats in Colorado and Nevada.[1][2] Other seats may also become competitive.

     Democratic-favored seat      Competitive Democratic-held seat
     Republican-favored seat      Competitive Republican-held seat

Summary[edit]

There are 34 Senators up for election this year as members of the class 3 Senators. Among the senators up for election in 2016, there are 10 Democrats and 24 Republicans.

There may be some changes if senators die or resign. If senators in other classes die or resign between 2014 and 2016, there may be additional special elections. The dates between which the death or resignation of a senator would lead a special election during this time period vary from state to state.

Shading indicates party with largest share of that line.

PartiesTotal
DemocraticRepublicanIndependent
Last election (2014)TBDTBD2100
Before this electionTBDTBD2100
Not upTBDTBDTBDTBD
Class 1 (20122018)238233
Class 2 (2014→2020)TBDTBDTBDTBD
Up9-1123-2534
General: Class 39-1123-2534
Incumbent retiring011
Incumbent running156
Intent undeclared8-1017-1927

Race summary[edit]

State
(linked to
summaries below)
IncumbentMost recent election results2016 intentCandidates
SenatorPartyElectoral
history
AlabamaRichard ShelbyRepublican1986
1992
1998
2004
2004
2010
Richard Shelby (R) 65.3%
William G. Barnes (D) 34.7%
Undecided[3][Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
AlaskaLisa MurkowskiRepublican2002 (appointed)
2004
2010
Lisa Murkowski (R) (write-in) 39.3%
Joe Miller (R) 35.3%
Scott McAdams (D) 24.2%
Undecided or undeclared[Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
ArizonaJohn McCainRepublican1986
1992
1998
2004
2004
2010
John McCain (R) 59.2%
Rodney Glassman (D) 34.7%
Undecided[4][Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
ArkansasJohn BoozmanRepublican2010John Boozman (R) 58.0%
Blanche Lincoln (D) 36.9%
Undecided or undeclared[Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
CaliforniaBarbara BoxerDemocratic1992
1998
2004
2004
2010
Barbara Boxer (D) 52.1%
Carly Fiorina (R) 42.5%
Undecided or undeclared[Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
ColoradoMichael BennetDemocratic2009 (Appointed)
2010
Michael Bennet (D) 47.7%
Ken Buck (R) 46.5%
Undecided or undeclared[Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
ConnecticutRichard BlumenthalDemocratic2010Richard Blumenthal (D) 55.1%
Linda McMahon (R) 43.3%
Undecided or undeclared[Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
FloridaMarco RubioRepublican2010Marco Rubio (R) 48.9%
Charlie Crist (I) 29.7%
Kendrick Meek (D) 20.1%
Undecided or undeclared[Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
GeorgiaJohnny IsaksonRepublican2004
2010
Johnny Isakson (R) 58.1%
Michael Thurmond (D) 39.2%
Undecided or undeclared[Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
HawaiiTo be determined in the 2014 special electionDaniel Inouye (D) 74.8%
Campbell Cavasso (R) 21.6%
[Data unknown/missing. You can help!][Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
IdahoMike CrapoRepublican1998
2004
2010
Mike Crapo (R) 71.1%
Tom Sullivan (D) 25.0%
Undecided or undeclared[Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
IllinoisMark KirkRepublican2010Mark Kirk (R) 48.2%
Alexi Giannoulias (D) 46.3%
Undecided or undeclared[Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
IndianaDan CoatsRepublican2010Dan Coats (R) 56.4%
Brad Ellsworth (D) 38.1%
Rebecca Sink-Burris (L) 5.4%
Running[5][Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
IowaChuck GrassleyRepublican1980
1986
1992
1998
2004
2010
Chuck Grassley (R) 64.5%
Roxanne Conlin (D) 33.2%
Running[6][Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
KansasJerry MoranRepublican2010Jerry Moran (R) 70.3%
Lisa Johnston (D) 26.2%
Undecided or undeclared[Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
KentuckyRand PaulRepublican2010Rand Paul (R) 55.8%
Jack Conway (D) 44.2%
Running[7][Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
LouisianaDavid VitterRepublican2004
2010
David Vitter (R) 56.6%
Charles Melancon (D) 37.7%
Undecided or undeclared[Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
MarylandBarbara MikulskiDemocratic1986
1992
1998
2004
2010
Barbara Mikulski (D) 61.8%
Eric Wargotz (R) 36.3%
Undecided or undeclared[Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
MissouriRoy BluntRepublican2010Roy Blunt (R) 54.3%
Robin Carnahan (D) 40.6%
Undecided or undeclared[Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
NevadaHarry ReidDemocratic1986
1992
1998
2004
2010
Harry Reid (D) 50.2%
Sharron Angle (R) 44.6%
Running[8][Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
New HampshireKelly AyotteRepublican2010Kelly Ayotte (R) 60.2%
Paul Hodes (D) 36.7%
Undecided or undeclared[Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
New YorkChuck SchumerDemocratic1998
2004
2010
Chuck Schumer (D) 65.4%
Jay Townsend (R) 33.0%
Undecided or undeclared[Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
North CarolinaRichard BurrRepublican2004
2010
Richard Burr (R) 55.0%
Elaine Marshall (D) 42.9%
Undecided or undeclared[Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
North DakotaJohn HoevenRepublican2010John Hoeven (R) 76.2%
Tracy Potter (D) 22.2%
Undecided or undeclared[Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
OhioRob PortmanRepublican2010Rob Portman (R) 57.3%
Lee Fisher (D) 39.0%
Undecided or undeclared[Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
OklahomaTo be determined in the 2014 special electionTom Coburn (R) 70.5%
Jim Rogers (D) 26.1%
[Data unknown/missing. You can help!][Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
OregonRon WydenDemocratic1996 (special)
1998
2004
2010
Ron Wyden (D) 57.2%
Jim Huffman (R) 39.4%
Undecided or undeclared[Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
PennsylvaniaPat ToomeyRepublican2010Pat Toomey (R) 51.01%
Joe Sestak (D) 48.99%
Undecided or undeclaredJoe Sestak[9]
South CarolinaTo be determined in the 2014 special electionJim DeMint (R) 62.4%
Alvin Greene (D) 28.2%
Tom Clements (G) 9.2%
[Data unknown/missing. You can help!][Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
South DakotaJohn ThuneRepublican2004
2010
John Thune (R) UnopposedUndecided or undeclared[Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
UtahMike LeeRepublican2010Mike Lee (R) 61.6%
Sam Granato (D) 32.8%
Scott Bradley (C) 5.7%
Undecided or undeclared[Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
VermontPatrick LeahyDemocratic1974
1980
1986
1992
1998
2004
2010
Patrick Leahy (D) 64.4%
Len Britton (R) 30.9%
Undecided or undeclared[Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
WashingtonPatty MurrayDemocratic1992
1998
2004
2010
Patty Murray (D) 52.4%
Dino Rossi (R) 47.6%
Running[10][Data unknown/missing. You can help!]
WisconsinRon JohnsonRepublican2010Ron Johnson (R) 51.9%
Russ Feingold (D) 47.0%
Running[11][Data unknown/missing. You can help!]


State
(linked to
summaries below)
SenatorPartyElectoral
history
Most recent election results2016 intentCandidates
Incumbent

Complete list of races[edit]

Thirty-four seats are up for election in 2016:

Alabama[edit]

Five-term Senator Richard Shelby was re-elected with 65.3% of the vote in 2010. He will be 82 years old in 2016. He served in the Senate as a Democrat until switching parties in 1994. As of February 2014, Shelby is undecided on whether or not he will seek a sixth term.[12]

Alaska[edit]

Two-term Senator Lisa Murkowski was appointed in 2002 and elected to a full term in 2004. She was defeated in the Republican primary in 2010 by Joe Miller. She later ran as a write-in candidate in the 2010 general election and was re-elected to a second full term with 39% of the vote. She is one of only two senators to be elected via write-in votes, the other being Strom Thurmond. She will be 59 years old in 2016. Potential Democratic candidate include state Senator Dennis Egan, state Representative Andy Josephson, state Senator Bill Wielechowski, state Senator Hollis French, and state Senate Minority Leader Johnny Ellis.[13]

Arizona[edit]

Five-term Senator and 2008 Republican Presidential nominee John McCain was re-elected with 59.3% of the vote in 2010. He will be 80 years old in 2016. McCain has hinted that he may retire.[14] He further said he is considering running for reelection.[15]

Potential Republican candidates include Martha McSally[16] and Grant Woods, as well as Congressmen Trent Franks, Matt Salmon, and John Shadegg.[17] Potential Democratic candidates include Gabby Giffords,[18] former Governor Janet Napolitano, Mark Kelly, Congresswoman Krysten Sinema, Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon, and former Surgeon General Richard Carmona.[17]

Arkansas[edit]

One-term Senator John Boozman defeated two-term Senator Blanche Lincoln with 58.0% of the vote in 2010. He will be 65 years old in 2016. Potential Democratic candidates include former Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter and Attorney General Dustin McDaniel.[19] Governor Mike Beebe is also a potential candidate.

California[edit]

Four-term Senator Barbara Boxer was re-elected with 52.1% of the vote in 2010. She will be 75 years old in 2016.

Colorado[edit]

One-term Senator Michael Bennet was appointed in 2009 and elected to a full term with 47.7% of the vote in 2010. He will be 51 years old in 2016.

Connecticut[edit]

One-term Senator Richard Blumenthal was elected with 55.1% of the vote in 2010. He will be 70 years old in 2016.

Florida[edit]

One-term Senator Marco Rubio was elected in a three-way race with 48.9% of the vote in 2010. He will be 45 years old in 2016. Rubio may run for President in 2016.[20][21][22] If he does become the Republican nominee, state law prohibits him from simultaneously running for re-election.[23] Former Republican Congressman Allen West may challenge Rubio in the primary[24] and has said that he will definitely run for the Senate if Rubio runs for President.[25] Potential Democratic candidates include Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown, Congressman Ted Deutch, DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz and 2010 gubernatorial nominee Alex Sink.[26]

Polling conducted by Public Policy Polling in September 2013 found Rubio leading Sink 45% to 42% and leading Wasserman Schultz 46% to 43%. West trailed Sink 44% to 38% and Wasserman Schultz 44% to 40%.[27]

Georgia[edit]

Two-term Senator Johnny Isakson was re-elected with 58.1% of the vote in 2010. He will be 71 years old in 2016. Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed has ruled out a run.[28] Potential Democratic candidates include State Representatives Scott Holcomb, Stacey Abrams, and James Beverly, and State Senators Doug Stoner and Jason Carter.[29]

Hawaii[edit]

Nine-term Senator and President pro tempore Daniel Inouye was re-elected with 75% of the vote in 2010. He continuously represented Hawaii in Congress after it achieved statehood in 1959 and would have been 92 years old in 2016. He intended to run for re-election to a tenth term[30] but he died on December 17, 2012.[31] Hawaii Governor Neil Abercrombie appointed Lieutenant Governor Brian Schatz in his place. Schatz is facing Congresswoman Colleen Hanabusa in the Democratic primary for the November 2014 special election.

Idaho[edit]

Three-term Senator Mike Crapo was re-elected with 71.1% of the vote in 2010. He will be 65 years old in 2016.

Illinois[edit]

One-term Senator Mark Kirk was elected with 48.4% of the vote in 2010. He will be 57 years old in 2016. First Lady Michelle Obama could potentially be a candidate, as could Lieutenant Governor of Illinois Sheila Simon and Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan.[32] Other potential Democratic candidates include U.S. Representatives Tammy Duckworth, Janice Schakowsky, Bill Foster, and Mike Quigley.[33] If Kirk retires, potential Republican candidates include U.S. Representatives Adam Kinzinger and Aaron Schock.[34]

Polling conducted by Public Policy Polling in November 2012 showed Michelle Obama beating Kirk 50% to 41%[35] and polling they conducted in November 2013 showed Kirk tied with Madigan 41% to 41%.[36]

Indiana[edit]

Three-term non-consecutive, one-term consecutive Senator Dan Coats was elected with 54.6% of the vote in 2010. He previously represented Indiana in the Senate between 1989 and 1999. He will be 73 years old in 2016. Coats intends to seek re-election.[5] Potential candidates include former Representative and 2010 Democratic Senate candidate Brad Ellsworth, former Senator Evan Bayh, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and former Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel.[37]

Iowa[edit]

Six-term Senator Chuck Grassley was re-elected with 64.5% of the vote in 2010. He will be 83 years old in 2016. Grassley plans on running for re-election.[38] Former Governor Tom Vilsack is a potential Democratic candidate. Representatives Steve King and Tom Latham could be Republican candidates if Grassley changes his mind and retires, while Congressman Dave Loebsack or ex-governor Chet Culver could run for the Democrats.[39] Democrat Bob Krause, a former State Representative, the nominee for State Treasurer in 1978, a candidate for Mayor of Waterloo in 1982 and a candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 has declared his candidacy.[40]

Kansas[edit]

One-term Senator Jerry Moran was elected with 70.3% of the vote in 2010. He will be 62 years old in 2016.

Kentucky[edit]

One-term Senator Rand Paul was elected with 55.7% of the vote in 2010. He will be 53 years old in 2016. Paul has already filed for re-election,[7] although he has also publicly expressed interest in running for president in 2016.[41] If he does become the Republican nominee, state law prohibits him from simultaneously running for re-election.[23] Potential Republican candidates include Kentucky Agriculture Commissioner James Comer and former Secretary of State Trey Grayson, along with Representatives Brett Guthrie and Ed Whitfield. Attorney General Jack Conway and Auditor Adam Edelen are potential Democratic candidates.[42]

Louisiana[edit]

Two-term Senator David Vitter was re-elected with 56.6% of the vote in 2010. He will be 55 years old in 2016. Vitter is running for Governor of Louisiana in 2015.[43] Potential Republican candidates include Representatives Jeff Landry, Charles Boustany, and John Fleming, while potential Democratic candidates include state legislators John Bel Edwards, Katrina Jackson, and Karen Carter Peterson.[44]

Maryland[edit]

Five-term Senator Barbara Mikulski was re-elected with 61.8% of the vote in 2010. She will be 80 years old in 2016. She is the longest-serving female senator and the longest-serving woman in the history of the U.S. Congress.

Missouri[edit]

One-term Senator Roy Blunt was elected with 54.3% of the vote in 2010. He will be 66 years old in 2016. Governor Jay Nixon is a potential challenger,[45] as is State Treasurer Clint Zweifel.[46]

Nevada[edit]

Five-term Senator and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was re-elected with 50.2% of the vote in 2010. He will be 76 years old in 2016. He will seek re-election.[8] Republican Brian Sandoval, the Governor of Nevada, has been mentioned as a possible opponent.[47] 2010 Republican nominee Sharron Angle may run again.[48] Wayne Allyn Root, the Libertarian Party nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2008, has re-joined the Republican Party and is considering running for the seat.[49][50]

New Hampshire[edit]

One-term Senator Kelly Ayotte was elected with 60.2% of the vote in 2010. She will be 48 years old in 2016. Ayotte is considered a potential Republican Vice Presidential nominee in 2016.[51] Governor Maggie Hassan is a potential Democratic candidate,[51] as are former Governor John Lynch and Congresswomen Ann McLane Kuster and Carol Shea-Porter. Ayotte may also face a primary challenge from the Tea Party.[51]

New York[edit]

Three-term Senator Chuck Schumer was re-elected with 66% of the vote in 2010. He will be 65 years old in 2016.

North Carolina[edit]

Two-term Senator Richard Burr was re-elected with 55% of the vote in 2010. Burr may retire.[52] He will be 60 years old in 2016. Anthony Foxx, the United States Secretary of Transportation and former Mayor of Charlotte, is a potential Democratic candidate.[53] Other potential Democratic candidates include State Treasurer Janet Cowell, state Senator Josh Stein, state Representative Grier Martin, and Raleigh Mayor Nancy McFarlane. Potential Republican candidates include Congressmen Robert Pittenger, Mark Meadows, and George Holding.[52]

North Dakota[edit]

One-term Senator John Hoeven was elected with 76.2% of the vote in 2010. He will be 59 years old in 2016. Potential Democratic candidates include state Senator George B. Sinner, state Representative Corey Mock, and USDA State Director Jasper Schneider.[54]

Ohio[edit]

One-term Senator Rob Portman was elected with 57.3% of the vote in 2010. He will be 60 years old in 2016. Portman is considered a potential 2016 Vice Presidential choice.[55] Democratic state Representative Bob Hagan has filed papers to run. Other potential Democratic candidates include former governor Ted Strickland, Congresswoman Betty Sutton, former Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, state senator Nina Turner, state Rep. Connie Pillich, and Congressman Tim Ryan.[56][55] Ohio State Treasurer Josh Mandel and Congressman Steve Stivers are potential Republican candidates if Portman vacates the seat.[55]

Oklahoma[edit]

Two-term Senator Tom Coburn was re-elected with 70.64% of the vote in 2010. Coburn is resigning in 2014. Coburn's retirement will trigger a special election; the winner of that special election will serve the remainder of Coburn's term and be the incumbent in this regular 2016 election.[57]

Former Congressman Dan Boren is viewed by some Oklahoma political operatives as the only Democrat who could make the race competitive, but is seen as unlikely to run.[58]

Oregon[edit]

Three-term Senator Ron Wyden was re-elected with 57.3% of the vote in 2010. He will be 67 years old in 2016.

Pennsylvania[edit]

One-term Senator Pat Toomey was elected with 51% of the vote in 2010. He will be 54 years old in 2016. Former Congressman Joe Sestak, the 2010 Democratic nominee, has formed an exploratory committee.[9] Other potential Democratic candidates include Attorney General Kathleen Kane,[59] Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz, State Treasurer Rob McCord, and former Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Secretary Katie McGinty.[60]

South Carolina[edit]

Two-term Senator Jim DeMint was re-elected with 61.48% of the vote in 2010. He resigned at the start of 2013, and Representative Tim Scott of South Carolina's 1st district was appointed to replace him by Governor Haley.[61] A special election will be held in 2014 for the remaining two years of the term; the 2016 election will then be for a full six-year term. Republican Congressman Mick Mulvaney is a potential candidate.[62]

South Dakota[edit]

Two-term Senator John Thune ran unopposed and was re-elected with 100% in 2010. He will be 55 years old in 2016.

Utah[edit]

One-term Senator Mike Lee was elected with 61.6% of the vote in 2010. He will be 45 years old in 2016. Former Republican state party chair Thomas Wright, former State Senator Dan Liljenquist and Mitt Romney's son Josh Romney may challenge Lee in the primary. Congressman Jim Matheson is a potential Democratic candidate.[63][64]

Vermont[edit]

Seven-term Senator Patrick Leahy was re-elected with 64.4% of the vote in 2010. He will be 76 years old in 2016.

Washington[edit]

Four-term Senator Patty Murray was re-elected with 52.15% of the vote in 2010. She will be 66 years old in 2016. Murray plans to seek re-election.

Wisconsin[edit]

One-term Senator Ron Johnson defeated three-term Senator Russ Feingold with 51.9% of the vote in 2010. He will be 61 years old in 2016. Polling by Public Policy Polling in February 2013 showed Johnson losing a re-match to Feingold, 52% to 42%.[65]

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