United States Senate election in North Carolina, 2014

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United States Senate election in North Carolina, 2014
North Carolina
2008 ←
November 4, 2014 (2014-11-04)→ 2020

 
Thom Tillis official portrait.jpg
Kay Hagan official photo.jpg
NomineeThom TillisKay Hagan
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote1,423,2591,377,651
Percentage48.8%47.3%

North Carolina Senate Election Results by County, 2014.svg

Election results by county
  Hagan—70-80%
  Hagan—60-70%
  Hagan—50-60%
  Hagan—<50%
  Tillis—<50%
  Tillis—50-60%
  Tillis—60-70%
  Tillis—70-80%

U.S. Senator before election

Kay Hagan
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Thom Tillis
Republican

 
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United States Senate election in North Carolina, 2014
North Carolina
2008 ←
November 4, 2014 (2014-11-04)→ 2020

 
Thom Tillis official portrait.jpg
Kay Hagan official photo.jpg
NomineeThom TillisKay Hagan
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote1,423,2591,377,651
Percentage48.8%47.3%

North Carolina Senate Election Results by County, 2014.svg

Election results by county
  Hagan—70-80%
  Hagan—60-70%
  Hagan—50-60%
  Hagan—<50%
  Tillis—<50%
  Tillis—50-60%
  Tillis—60-70%
  Tillis—70-80%

U.S. Senator before election

Kay Hagan
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Thom Tillis
Republican

The 2014 United States Senate election in North Carolina took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Carolina, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Kay Hagan ran for re-election to a second term in office. She faced Republican Thom Tillis, the Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives, and Libertarian Sean Haugh, his party's nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2002, in the general election. Tillis narrowly defeated Hagan.[1]

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Withdrew[edit]

Results[edit]

Democratic primary election results[9]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticKay Hagan372,20977.16%
DemocraticWill Stewart66,90313.87%
DemocraticErnest T. Reeves43,2578.97%
Totals482,369100%

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

The eight Republican candidates on the 2014 U.S. Senate primary ballot were the most in party history in North Carolina, more than the seven on the ballot in the 2002 Republican primary won by Elizabeth Dole.[10]

Declared[edit]

Withdrew[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Polling[edit]

Primary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ted
Alexander
Alex
Bradshaw
Greg
Brannon
Heather
Grant
Mark
Harris
Edward
Kryn
Jim
Snyder
Thom
Tillis
Other/
Undecided
Public Policy PollingMay 3–4, 2014925± 3.2%2%0%28%4%15%1%1%40%11%
Public Policy PollingApril 26–28, 2014694± 3.7%2%1%20%5%11%2%3%46%12%
SurveyUSAApril 16–22, 2014392± 5%1%1%20%2%15%2%2%39%19%
Public Policy PollingApril 3–6, 2014314± 5.5%6%5%15%7%11%1%2%18%34%
SurveyUSAMarch 27–31, 2014433± 4.8%6%1%15%6%11%2%3%23%34%
SurveyUSAMarch 19–23, 2014405± 5%1%2%13%5%9%0%5%27%38%
SurveyUSAMarch 17–19, 2014405± 5%7%4%15%11%6%3%4%28%23%
Public Policy PollingMarch 6–9, 2014392± 5%7%6%14%11%7%1%4%14%36%
American InsightsFebruary 11–15, 2014168± 7.6%4%4%7%11%74%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 6–9, 2014305± 5.6%10%13%13%8%2%20%34%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Philip
Berger
Greg
Brannon
Jim
Cain
Renee
Ellmers
Bill
Flynn
Virginia
Foxx
Heather
Grant
Mark
Harris
Thom
Tillis
Lynn
Wheeler
Other/
Undecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 9–12, 2014575± 4.1%11%7%11%8%19%44%
Public Policy PollingDecember 5–8, 2013529± 4.3%11%8%11%12%13%44%
Public Policy PollingNovember 8–11, 2013498± 4.4%11%8%14%20%47%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 6–9, 2013311± 5.6%13%6%11%8%5%12%2%43%
Public Policy PollingAugust 8–11, 2013344± 5.3%9%7%9%18%4%4%8%2%40%
22%23%56%
Public Policy PollingJuly 12–14, 2013373± 5.1%11%7%11%11%16%1%5%3%35%
22%18%21%39%
25%32%43%
Public Policy PollingJune 12–14, 2013374± 5.1%11%7%8%9%23%4%9%3%27%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Philip
Berger
Cherie
Berry
Greg
Brannon
Renee
Ellmers
Terry
Embler
Dan
Forest
Virginia
Foxx
George
Holding
Patrick
McHenry
Thom
Tillis
Other/
Undecided
Public Policy PollingMay 17–20, 2013366± 5.1%10%14%7%10%15%6%38%
Public Policy PollingApril 11–14, 2013468± 4.5%11%18%6%12%1%13%7%32%
Public Policy PollingMarch 7–10, 2013530± 4.3%8%12%4%10%1%18%13%7%2%24%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 7–10, 2013518± 4.3%7%18%5%10%1%18%3%10%3%27%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Philip
Berger
Renee
Ellmers
Virginia
Foxx
George
Holding
Richard
Hudson
Patrick
McHenry
Mark
Meadows
Sue
Myrick
Robert
Pittenger
Thom
Tillis
Other/
Undecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 10–13, 2013449± 4.6%5%11%21%2%5%15%6%2%33%
Public Policy PollingDecember 6–9, 2012462± 4.6%11%17%9%6%13%4%14%2%25%
Runoff

Results[edit]

Republican primary election results[9]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanThom Tillis223,17445.68%
RepublicanGreg Brannon132,63027.15%
RepublicanMark Harris85,72717.55%
RepublicanHeather Grant22,9714.70%
RepublicanJim Snyder9,4141.93%
RepublicanTed Alexander9,2581.89%
RepublicanAlex Lee Bradshaw3,5280.72%
RepublicanEdward Kryn1,8530.38%
Totals488,555100%

Libertarian primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Results[edit]

Libertarian primary election results[9]
PartyCandidateVotes%
LibertarianSean Haugh1,22660.69%
LibertarianTim D'Annunzio79439.31%
Totals2,020100%

Other parties[edit]

Certified write-in candidates[edit]

General election[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Outside spending[edit]

In July 2014, Jim Morrill of The Charlotte Observer calculated that as of the end of June, more than $26 million had been spent by outside advocacy groups on the election, with $17 million of it attacking Hagan or supporting Tillis and less than $9 million supporting Hagan or attacking Tillis. By contrast, outside groups spent $25 million during the entire 2008 election. He reported that only $11.4 million had been reported to the FEC, with the rest of the "dark money" coming from groups that did not have to disclose their donors. 27% of the money spent supporting Tillis came from groups required to disclose their donors whereas 69% of the money supporting Hagan did so.[58]

The final cost of outside spending according to Opensecrets.org place the amounts at $8.5 million for Hagan and $35.5 million attacking Tillis, and $13.7 million for Tillis and $20.9 million attacking Hagan, placing the totals by candidate at $44 million for Hagan, and $34.6 million for Tillis. [59]

Debates[edit]

Three televised debates between the candidates were held: the first on September 3 moderated by Norah O'Donnell of CBS, the second on October 7 moderated by George Stephanopoulos of ABC, and the third (the only one to feature Sean Haugh) on October 9 moderated by Jon Evans of WECT-TV.[60]

Video of the first debate is available here, with the second here and the third here.

Polling[edit]

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kay
Hagan (D)
Thom
Tillis (R)
Sean
Haugh (L)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingNovember 1–3, 20141,333± 2.7%46%44%5%6%
48%46%6%
Public Policy PollingOctober 30–31, 2014738± ?46%45%4%5%
YouGovOctober 25–31, 20141,727± 3%44%41%3%12%
Gravis MarketingOctober 29–30, 20141,006± 3%46%47%8%
Civitas InstituteOctober 29–30, 2014600± 4%41%41%6%10%
45%44%11%
Harper PollingOctober 28–30, 2014511± 4.34%44%46%6%4%
45%48%7%
Fox NewsOctober 28–30, 2014909± 3%43%42%4%1%9%
CNN/ORCOctober 27–30, 2014559 LV± 4%48%46%4%2%
896 RV± 3.5%47%41%8%4%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 28–29, 2014982± 3%47%46%3%3%
Public Policy PollingOctober 28–29, 2014657± ?47%46%4%3%
Vox PopuliOctober 26–27, 2014615± 3.95%43%48%9%
Monmouth UniversityOctober 23–26, 2014432± 4.7%48%46%1%4%
Elon UniversityOctober 21–25, 2014687 LV± 3.74%44.7%40.7%6.3%6.6%
996 RV± 3.11%44.8%37.5%7.7%8.5%
SurveyUSAOctober 21–25, 2014802± 4%44%44%5%3%5%
NBC News/MaristOctober 19–23, 2014756 LV± 3.6%43%43%7%<1%6%
1,070 RV± 3%42%40%8%1%9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovOctober 16–23, 20141,910± 4%44%41%2%0%13%
SurveyUSAOctober 16–20, 2014568± 4.2%46%43%6%5%
Public Policy PollingOctober 16–18, 2014780± 3.5%46%43%5%7%
47%44%8%
Gravis MarketingOctober 16–18, 20141,022± 3%43%48%9%
Civitas InstituteOctober 15–18, 2014600± 4%41%42%6%11%
44%44%12%
SurveyUSAOctober 10–12, 2014554± 4.2%44%41%7%8%
45%46%9%
High Point UniversitySep. 30–Oct. 2 & 4–9, 2014584± 4.1%39.5%40.4%7%13%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 6–7, 2014970± 3%48%46%2%4%
Suffolk UniversityOctober 4–7, 2014500± 4.4%46.8%45.4%4.4%3.4%
Morey GroupOctober 1–6, 2014956± 3.2%40.1%37.8%2%20.2%
NBC News/MaristSeptember 27–October 1, 2014665 LV± 3.8%44%40%7%<1%9%
1,132 RV± 2.9%42%37%8%1%12%
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerSeptember 25–October 1, 20141,000± 2.09%45%41%14%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovSeptember 20–October 1, 20142,002± 3%46%45%2%1%6%
CivitasSeptember 25, 27–28, 2014600± 4%46%41%4%1%8%
860± 3.5%50%43%8%
CNN/ORCSeptember 22–25, 2014595 LV± 4%46%43%7%4%
860± 3.5%46%39%9%6%
Gravis MarketingSeptember 22–23, 2014860± 3%46%42%12%
Global Strategy GroupSeptember 16–18, 2014600± 4.9%45%41%5%9%
High Point UniversitySeptember 13–18, 2014410± 5%42%40%6%12%
Fox NewsSeptember 14–16, 2014605± 4%41%36%6%13%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 11–14, 20141,266± 2.8%44%40%5%11%
46%42%12%
Civitas InstituteSeptember 9–10, 2014490± 4.5%46%43%5%6%
47%46%7%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 8–10, 20141,000± 4%45%39%6%9%
American InsightsSeptember 5–10, 2014459± 4.6%46%36%6%13%
Elon UniversitySeptember 5–9, 2014629 LV± 3.91%44.9%40.8%9.1%5.2%
983 RV± 3.13%42.7%36.8%10.7%9.8%
Garin-Hart-YangSeptember 3–6, 2014802± 3.5%48%45%7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovAugust 18–September 2, 20142,059± 3%42%43%5%0%10%
Suffolk UniversityAugust 16–19, 2014500± 4.4%45.4%43%5.2%6.4%
Public Policy PollingAugust 14–17, 2014856± 3.4%42%38%8%13%
43%42%14%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 5–6, 2014750± 4%40%45%6%9%
Civitas InstituteJuly 28–29, 2014600± 4%41%39%7%12%
43%45%10%
Gravis MarketingJuly 22–27, 20141,380± 3%44%41%15%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovJuly 5–24, 20142,678± 3.5%44%45%2%7%
Public Policy PollingJuly 17–20, 20141,062± 3%41%34%8%16%
42%39%19%
Civitas InstituteJune 18–19 & 22, 2014600± 4%42%36%9%12%
47%43%9%
Public Policy PollingJune 12–15, 20141,076± 3%39%34%11%16%
42%38%20%
Magellan StrategiesJune 5–8, 2014700± 3.7%47%46%7%
Civitas InstituteMay 20–22, 2014600± 4%36%39%8%15%
41%46%12%
Public Policy PollingMay 9–11, 2014877± 3.3%38%36%11%15%
41%41%18%
Rasmussen ReportsMay 7–8, 2014750± 4%44%45%5%7%
Magellan StrategiesApril 14–15, 2014804± 3.46%43%43%8%6%
New York Times/Kaiser FamilyApril 8–15, 2014900± ?42%40%5%14%
Public Policy PollingApril 3–6, 2014740± 3.6%43%41%16%
SurveyUSAMarch 27–31, 20141,489± 2.6%45%46%9%
Public Policy PollingMarch 6–9, 2014884± 3.3%45%43%13%
Hickman AnalyticsFebruary 17–20, 2014400± 4.9%45%41%13%
American InsightsFebruary 11–15, 2014611± 4%38%35%26%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 6–9, 2014708± 3.7%40%42%17%
Rasmussen ReportsJanuary 22–23, 2014500± 4.5%40%47%3%10%
Harper PollingJanuary 20–21, 2014778± 3.51%44%44%12%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 9–12, 20141,384± 2.6%42%43%15%
Public Policy PollingDecember 5–8, 20131,281± 2.7%44%42%14%
Public Policy PollingNovember 8–11, 2013701± 4%44%42%14%
Public Policy PollingOctober 4–6, 2013746± ?%47%40%13%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 6–9, 2013600± 4%51%36%14%
Public Policy PollingAugust 8–11, 2013600± 4%47%39%14%
Public Policy PollingJuly 12–14, 2013600± 4%49%38%12%
Public Policy PollingJune 12–14, 2013500± 4.4%45%40%15%
Public Policy PollingMay 17–20, 2013500± 4.4%48%41%11%
Public Policy PollingApril 11–14, 2013601± 4%49%39%11%
Public Policy PollingMarch 7–10, 2013611± 4%50%36%14%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 7–10, 2013600± 4%46%38%16%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 10–13, 2013608± 4%47%37%16%
Public Policy PollingDecember 6–9, 2012578± 4.1%48%38%14%

Results[edit]

2014 North Carolina U.S. Senate election[61]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanThom Tillis1,423,25948.82%Increase 4.64
DemocraticKay Hagan1,377,65147.26%Decrease 5.39
LibertarianSean Haugh109,1003.74%Increase 0.62
OtherWrite-ins5,2710.18%Increase 0.14
Majority45,6081.56%
Turnout2,915,281
Republican gain from DemocraticSwingIncrease 5.0

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Republicans seize Senate, gaining full control of Congress". November 5, 2014. Retrieved November 5, 2014. 
  2. ^ CNN: Sen. Kay Hagan to run again in 2014
  3. ^ a b c d e f Miller, Joshua (November 13, 2012). "Hagan Targeted by GOP, Ready for 2014 N.C. Race". Roll Call. Retrieved November 17, 2012. 
  4. ^ a b NC State Board of Elections: Candidate filing list
  5. ^ News & Observer: 2 long-shot Democrats challenge Kay Hagan
  6. ^ News & Observer: Kay Hagan gets a challenger
  7. ^ Fayetteville Observer
  8. ^ SenatorWestphal.com - on his site, Westphal wrote: "I could not raise the $1470 filing fee for the Senate race in North Carolina, therefore, I am heading to Fort Myers on February 28th. It is my intention to file for the House of Representatives in the 11th District, which comprises [sic] of the Fort Myers area."
  9. ^ a b c NC State Board of Elections website
  10. ^ Ostermeier, Eric (May 6, 2014). "North Carolina GOP Eyes 2nd Ever US Senate Primary Runoff". 
  11. ^ Shelby Star
  12. ^ Dr. Greg Brannon steps up to challenge Hagan in 2014
  13. ^ Heather Grant to run for U.S. Senate seat - journalpatriot: News
  14. ^ Trygstad, Kyle. "Conservative Preacher Joins North Carolina Senate Primary". Roll Call. Retrieved 12 September 2013. 
  15. ^ [1][dead link]
  16. ^ WBTV/Associated Press
  17. ^ WRAL/AP: Tillis says he'll run for US Senate
  18. ^ a b c d Mimms, Sarah (February 13, 2013). "N.C. Labor Commissioner Considering Run Against Hagan". National Journal. Retrieved February 14, 2013. 
  19. ^ "Terry Embler - As many if not most have noticed, I have...". Facebook. 2013-05-14. Retrieved 2014-07-26. 
  20. ^ Fox 8
  21. ^ John Frank (January 30, 2014). "Republican Bill Flynn takes early exit from US Senate race". News Observer. Retrieved January 31, 2014. 
  22. ^ News & Observer Under the Dome: Phil Berger won't run for US Senate
  23. ^ Frank, John (May 29, 2013). "Cherie Berry says she won't run for U.S. Senate". The News & Observer. Retrieved May 29, 2013. 
  24. ^ Robertson, Gary D. (September 18, 2013). "Brunstetter considering US Senate bid". WRAL-TV. Associated Press. Retrieved September 18, 2013. 
  25. ^ News & Observer Under the Dome: Pete Brunstetter says he won't seek US Senate seat
  26. ^ Trygstad, Kyle (May 17, 2013). "Ambassador Eyeing Kay Hagan Challenge". Roll Call. Retrieved May 17, 2013. 
  27. ^ House Republican Won't Run for Senate #NCSEN | At the Races
  28. ^ Morrill, Jim (March 13, 2013). "If nominated, he will not run ....". Campaign Tracker. Retrieved March 14, 2013. 
  29. ^ Cahn, Emily (August 20, 2013). "Virginia Foxx Says No to Senate Bid in North Carolina". Roll Call. Retrieved August 20, 2013. 
  30. ^ Cahn, Emily (April 11, 2013). "North Carolina: McHenry Won't Run Against Hagan". Roll Call. Retrieved April 11, 2013. 
  31. ^ Morrill, Jim (April 26, 2013). "Table Talk". Charlotte Business Journal. Retrieved May 18, 2013. 
  32. ^ "Terry Embler - As I am no longer in the running for the office, I...". Facebook. August 26, 2013. Retrieved September 11, 2014. 
  33. ^ Frank, John (March 6, 2014). "Utah Sen. Mike Lee endorses Greg Brannon in contested Senate primary". News and Observer. Retrieved 6 March 2014. 
  34. ^ Liberty Circle: Congressman Thomas Massie Endorses Greg Brannon for U.S. Senate
  35. ^ "Rand Paul Endorses in North Carolina Primary". Roll Call. October 16, 2013. Retrieved October 17, 2013. 
  36. ^ Ron Paul 2014 Endorsements | LibertyPAC
  37. ^ News & Observer: Coulter endorses Brannon, bashes Tillis
  38. ^ Winston-Salem Journal
  39. ^ "Mark Levin endorses Greg Brannon for US Senate". The Right Scoop. 2014-05-01. Retrieved 2014-07-26. 
  40. ^ FreedomWorks backs Brannon in N.C. - Katie Glueck - POLITICO.com
  41. ^ Gun Owners of America Endorses Greg Brannon for US Senate — Brannon for US Senate
  42. ^ NAGR PAC Endorses Greg Brannon for US Senate — Brannon for US Senate
  43. ^ News & Observer Morning Memo (Nov. 25, 2013)
  44. ^ a b c News & Observer
  45. ^ News & Observer
  46. ^ Charlotte Observer
  47. ^ N&R endorses Jim Snyder in Republican US Senate primary
  48. ^ a b Romney endorses Tillis in North Carolina | TheHill
  49. ^ http://atr.rollcall.com/2016-rand-paul-jeb-bush-north-carolina-senate http://atr.rollcall.com/2016-rand-paul-jeb-bush-north-carolina-senate/
  50. ^ Governor Pat McCrory endorses Thom Tillis in Senate race
  51. ^ North Carolina Senate primary: Rand Paul endorses Thom Tillis - James Hohmann - POLITICO.com
  52. ^ Romney endorses Tillis | Under the Dome Blog | NewsObserver.com
  53. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg bh bi bj bk bl bm bn bo bp Legislative Endorsements Roll In for Thom Tillis | Thom Tillis
  54. ^ Charlotte Observer: Controversial former candidate making Senate bid
  55. ^ Charlotte Observer
  56. ^ a b c State Board of Elections: CERTIFIED UNAFFILIATED AND WRITE-IN CANDIDATES
  57. ^ Charlotte Observer: Indian Trail councilman tenders resignation – in Klingon
  58. ^ "Outside spending, ‘dark’ money fuel N.C. Senate race". The Charlotte Observer. July 4, 2014. Retrieved September 3, 2014. 
  59. ^ "2014 Outside Spending, by Race". opensecrets.org. November 10, 2014. Retrieved November 10, 2014. 
  60. ^ News & Observer: What NC voters might learn from final Hagan-Tillis debates
  61. ^ NC State Board of Elections website

External links[edit]