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i am new to wikipedia, but there is an article about Nikolai Kondratiev, so the link to "Nikolai Kondratieff" should be fixed.
According to the "paradigm" given, the Age of Steel etc only lasted 33 yrs. How is this accounted for???--Jack Upland 09:04, 30 January 2006 (UTC)
No, my point is the length of the waves seems to vary. Which goes to the heart of the problems with the theory, and for the purposes of this article the lack of explanation for its basis. The evidence for the K-wave must be the periodicity of long term economic development. But where is this evidence?--Jack Upland (talk) 15:10, 4 December 2011 (UTC)
It seems to me that this theory is pseudoscience. I'd vote that the article be removed or at least have a big warning label slapped on it. It is to economics what Bigfoot is to biology. NONE of this has been peer reviewed!
The function of this article is to explain what the theory is, and this includes giving the reader some indication of the general discourse attached to it, including 'sketchy' theories. I think the article does that rather well without being overlong.--Jack Upland 06:10, 29 August 2006 (UTC)
KEEP This article clearly introduces to the reader the theory. To assert that it mumbo-jumbo misses the point -all economics is mumbo-jumbo and is beset with fashionable theories at least every decade. Keep this article. Lentisco 02:55, 4 September 2006 (UTC)
That is the problem. Now we just need a source which points that out - or else we'll be accused of original research!--Jack Upland 22:27, 21 January 2007 (UTC)
Rather amusing to say that the long cycles are to economy what bigfoot is to biology. In fact, the hypothesis that attributes the observed "long wave" oscillations to random factors does not pass significance tests. I here defy everyone who believes the opposite to prove it with the right statistical tools. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 184.108.40.206 (talk) 15:48, 3 June 2010 (UTC)
There is an established branch of economics that studies long term or Kondratiev cycles. A related branch is new economic history. It is of historical importance and not for predicting the stock market. Some market analysts who know little about the actual economic cycles use supposed Kondratiev wave theory for predictions. There is little in the economic literature to suggest that Kondratiev waves are a timing tool. Kondratiev waves simply label long economic cycles with their leading technologies. This is a very interesting field and it's unfortunate that more economists do not follow it. Perhaps that is because economists generally are not engineers.Phmoreno (talk) 15:58, 8 October 2010 (UTC)
The following was added to the article.
I don't know what this means. I think it needs a fuller explanation before it is included.--Jack Upland 06:40, 26 December 2006 (UTC)
Why the hell are the views of the "Austrian school" given here? Sure, its a response, but in the absence of any mainstream or non austrian response being listed, it seems to be simply plugging the austrian school. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 220.127.116.11 (talk) 22:19, 13 June 2009 (UTC)
I see the article uses both names - Kondratiev and Kondratieff, however, most of books refer to Kondratieff. I think it should be consistent throughout the article as well as the article about Kondratiev. Solar Apex (talk) 04:23, 2 January 2009 (UTC)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikhail_Tugan-Baranovsky 18.104.22.168 (talk) 19:09, 18 February 2009 (UTC)
Who and when was this page updated? In it we find that the next "winter" was suposse to happen late 2008, and it did.
Can someone please explain what a Saturation Point is - it is used as a column heading in the table for the sequence of Kondrtiev Waves, but nowhere is it explicitly explained. Thanks. --22.214.171.124 (talk) 21:53, 14 August 2009 (UTC)
This opening statement "regular, sinusoidal-like cycles in the modern (capitalist) world economy." seems to imply that the cycles are germane only to market economies. Did they not appear in socialist economies, was there a lag in their appearance in socialist economies, or did socialist economies (China under Mao, Cuba, DPRK) perform so poorly that the trend in them was down from the moment of successful revolution? Perhaps "capitalist" should be deleted.Gaintes (talk) 16:56, 1 February 2010 (UTC)
I would like to add some information on the sixth Kondratiev wave but I'm treading very carefully because it's the subject of a book I have co-authored. I believe that we have a significant contribution to add to the debate but I obviously want to do this without being too promotional. I would appreciate any suggestions on how to phrase our contribution so it doesn't get removed as advertising.
This text is what I am proposing to add in (feedback/comments gratefully received).
"It has been proposed that the sixth Kondratiev wave is now in its infancy, and will be defined by a move towards resource efficiency. The innovations that are now emerging, and will come to dominate in this wave, include technologies such as landfill mining, green chemistry, renewable energy, crowd-sourcing. The wave will also be marked by institutional changes such as a shift to service-based rather than product-based industry, decoupling of resource-consumption from economic growth and the comprehensive pricing of ecosystem services and waste."
Thanks BNogrady (talk) 01:21, 24 April 2010 (UTC)
Thanks Smallbones. Having looked at that page on COI, perhaps the best way for me to approach this is to declare the following: I am co-author of a book titled The Sixth Wave (Random House Australia), which advances the theory that the sixth Kondratiev wave will be based on resource efficiency. I would like to contribute to the page on long waves but without violating Wikipedia's principles. As such, I volunteer the following information as a summary of the arguments put forward in the book, and hope that an editor of this page will find this information pertinent and relevant to the page.
""It has been proposed that the sixth Kondratiev wave is now in its infancy, and will be defined by a move towards resource efficiency. The innovations that are now emerging, and will come to dominate in this wave, include technologies such as landfill mining, green chemistry, renewable energy, crowd-sourcing. The wave will also be marked by institutional changes such as a shift to service-based rather than product-based industry, decoupling of resource-consumption from economic growth and the comprehensive pricing of ecosystem services and waste." BNogrady (talk) 05:40, 24 April 2010 (UTC)
In Silverberg, Gerald; Verspagen, Bart (2000). Breaking the Waves: A Poisson Regression Approach to Schumpeterian Clustering of Basic Innovations. Maastricht: MERIT.
(It might be more convincing to use the peer-reviewed version of the above cited paper by Silverberg & Verspagen: Silverberg, Gerald; Verspagen, Bart (2003). "Breaking the waves: a Poisson regression approach to Schumpeterian clustering of basic innovations". Cambridge journal of economics 27 (5): 671–693.) Zwarteloper (talk) 19:55, 13 June 2011 (UTC)
a review of application of spectral methods are given. And they are shown to be problematic. So Russian works cited in paragraph are most probably written with a lack of knowledge of previous work in the field.
Looks like at least it worths to mention that spectral analysis was applied in many previous works, there were a lot debates and still they are considered problematic for the task of identification of waves as they produce 'wave artefacts' on plain data. SergeyKurdakov (talk) 14:13, 28 April 2011 (UTC)
The following was moved do discussion because it was not in encyclopedic style and had few citations. Also, citations were not in proper format.
The theory of long cycles tend to generate much debate during periods of so-called "recessions", while during the long periods of growth decreases instead the intensity of the debate. Since the 1970s and above 1980s, the discussions increased quite hugely, when they were relatively faded between 1945 and 1970. It is questionable whether the period since 1967 (Meadows Report), or 1971 (end of gold convertibility of the dollar) or 1973 (oil shocks) is a long recession. The US economy has experienced strong productivity gains and a period of economic growth in length as yet unknown, from the years 1980s. As for Asia, this continent started to take off ever since. But Europe has actually experienced the problems of mass unemployment and slower growth since the 1970s. Yet the theory of long cycles then experienced an upturn, but in all over directions than before. These long cycles would be not economic, but also political. It is not only cycles of political views, but cycles involving the world via their geopolitical dimension. And Modelski (1983) and Goldstein (1988) are interpreting and completing the Kondratiev results. In parallel with Kondratiev economic long waves, exist in parallel hegemonic cycles. Hegemonic cycle lasts two successive Kondratiev cycles (120 years) by Modelski, or between two and three cycles (150 years) by Goldstein.
In fact, in Europe itself, the theory of hegemonic long cycles initiated notably by Modelski and Goldstein, has long had less success in starting a debate in Universities, than the theories about economic long cycles lasting approximately 50 years. The real debate has often opposed rather - since the 1970s and especially 1980s - neo-Schumpeterian on one hand, with advocates of the theory of the World System on the other hand. It is true though that the World System Approach accepts more the idea of a possible existence of political long cycles. Among the neo-Schumpeterian, Kleinknecht conducted audits of the econometric theory of Kondratiev, country by country, and concludes we can consider this theory as widely tested empirically. On the other hand, proponents of the theory of the World System note that this theory does not oppose only developed countries on one hand, developing countries on the other side. It is also showed, in developed countries themselves, the presence of growing inequalities in income and endowment factors, between neighboring regions: through the establishment of systems for the construction of suitable qualifications, the long cycle and the global system naturally spread inequalities locally, according to the international division of labor. Gerhard Mensch's works can be proved to be in part as a link between these theories. On the one hand he argues for a neo-Schumpeterian explanation of the long cycles of innovation. On the other hand, since it explains that innovations through credit systems adapted to recognize the global evolution, may exist in periods of expansion like in recession periods, it justifies the fact that innovations can be supported by the public sector, for example in a recession and to increase the average skill level.
Assume that the findings made in the early days of the theory of economic long cycles (early twentieth century and even a little before) show points of support to build statistical systems, that are conceived in order to verify the theory. What are these points of support? On the one hand, the various economic sectors vehicle some productivity differentials. Thanks to the knowledge of these differentials... we could understand how the credit spreads from a sector of the economy to another to feed growth. But if we reason, not taking into account the sectoral point of view, but rather from a national perspective, we will not have that subtelty. It is this subtelty that allows the construction of econometric systems to resolve the question. If we can understand the phenomenon of growth only nationally is one possibility; there economy and law are used to walk closely together. But it must go global to move towards the solution in terms of the method how to conceptually integrate the global innovation? Should it be, to hope to achieve, and solve, again... a question of method! Indeed, early theories of long cycles rather studied the issue of price changes for each country, and also in some respects suggested modest ways to incorporate the issue of quantity or income. Now if we come to the world issue... in fact, globally, it appears almost impossible to directly compare prices, but it does not address directly the question of quantity, it depends on the concept of global output rather qualitatively (rather than the aggregate production in its quantitative expression). However, it is difficult in a single sentence to say exactly which product brings the world economy?!... As economic agents should anyway make decisions in real time, one can probably assume that the monetary system - far more than the real economy - is supposed to absorb the fluctuations of all kinds of economy, to insure the global economy... Statistically, if one were to reconstruct a method to examine a theory of long cycles, not suited to the post-war Bretton Woods period, but that of globalization, how? How to ensure the economic and social changes to take into account both the general appearance of the economy, at national or regional (EU, USA, etc.) levels - where the right and the economy would not tend to enter into frequent contradiction -, and in industries where productivity differentials expressed that generate significant foreclosure effects, and very often trigger income inequalities between countries and regions. To achieve this, while taking into account the expectations, we need a third term. We can consider that this third term might be the social system and social change worldwide. Now the real problem of method is that in a very financialized economy, the social term is perhaps not the final horizon for policymakers, but only an underlying point serving the collective evolution, which they would use as a conceptual guarantee to build new contracts so as to generate further profits. Systems should be established allowing statistical regression using social media as statistical regression itself, while solving, though, at any time, the problem of method: how to adjust the overall look of the economy (where the law and economics are not bound into conflict), and the appearance of sectors, organizations and private strategies that tend to create always conflicts of interest.
In fact, the French school has long since developed an original approach. Halfway between the economic system and political system, there is the monetary system. That is why the long cycles can be considered in fact as long monetary cycles each time involving some new key-currency. In particular Marjolin, Imbert, Dupriez, Jourdon have developed, suggested, illustrated such a possible approach.
Wikipedia is supposed to be encyclopedia like. That means priority goes to academic or trade journals and books. We can't include everyone's paper. It is acceptable to briefly mention a published paper, which should then be put in the footnotes. Also, we have a section for "other researchers" where these can go.Phmoreno (talk) 17:49, 18 October 2011 (UTC)
The following was removed:
Early in 2006,a Chinese scholar named dong congcong,had written the paper,and as is considered in this paper, none of the ever existing long wave theories can totally describe or correctly explain the chronic fluctuating characters of the capitalist world economy system since the year 1857. Based on Karl Marx's greatest work Capital and combined with considerable quantities of historical materials such as all kinds of writings about economic long wave both at home and abroad, the paper analyzes four inherently identical waves, tries to draw a fluctuating graph of the world economy with the wavelength supposed to be 50 years, and then forecasts the future of the world. Here is the summary. Wave One:1857/58-1907/08 Wave Two:1907/08-1957/58 Wave Three:1957/58-2007/08 Wave Four:2007/08-2057/58 And the phase:07/57,16/66,24/74,32/82,40/90,50/00. And the equation:FC-R(t)≈-cos(2л(t-1857)/50) And the forecasts:In the next 50 years,2007,2016,2024,2032,2040,2050 and 2057 may be the key points.
This article is now way too long and seems to have degenerated into a grab bag of opinions, speculations, and theories by anyone and everyone, some only vaguely relevant.--Jack Upland (talk) 08:11, 22 May 2012 (UTC)
A major edit removed all of the credit cycle theory. That section needed editing but it is an essential part of the theory and should not have been removed. The worst depressions have been associated with the aftermaths of peak credit.Phmoreno (talk) 00:02, 20 December 2012 (UTC)
Is that actually related to the idea of a Kondratiev wave or is it just some other 'long wave' theory? If the latter, it needs to go into some kind of a "See Also", not article text. Volunteer Marek 03:56, 22 January 2013 (UTC)
According to some of the references, Kondratiev cycle, long economic cycle and other terms are used interchangeably. This article was a place to keep them all together under the title of "Kondartiev" because that is the best known name. Also, modern writers such as Perez who continue to keep the long cycle tradition alive by adding modern updates, such as credit cycle. Demographics as a factor date back to the 1920s and were mentioned by Al Hansen in the 1930s as being a contributing cause of the Great Depression.
By breaking the article apart and deleting all the work that was done all is being lost from Wikipedia. It at least should have been re-titled "long economic cycles" or something like that so it could have been kept, even though it would have been harder to find in a search.
When someone else reads the modern works and rediscovers all the removed parts they can try to restore them. I read the background material before I started keeping the detailed notes that I now do, so it is too difficult for me to defend this article. I have moved along to other work. Phmoreno (talk) 13:56, 22 January 2013 (UTC)
You can recover anything deleted from the article from the history page. But a Wikipedia article is not a noticeboard for everyone to post up anything that is vaguely relevant.--Jack Upland (talk) 09:16, 24 January 2013 (UTC)
Kondratiev has been dead for a long time now, but his idea of long cycles continues to be written about and updated with modern history. Most of the writers define Kondratieve as the 40-60 year cycle, but attribute different causes. Various recent writers have written about long cycles and they almost always mention Kondratiev and Schumpeter, but they keep introducing modern interpretations, so it is very difficult to say what is or is not Kondratiev theory anymore. So if we are not going to allow credit cycle, demographic cycle, etc. in this article, then maybe it would be better to rename this article Long economic cycles hand have a Kondratiev section.Phmoreno (talk) 01:31, 23 January 2013 (UTC)
Because the term K-wave is commonly used we need an article that explains what it is. We do not need that article loaded up with information about similar things. What this article was moving towards was a synthesis of wildly different opinions and observations falsely presented as a unified theory. Let's take the examples you give: the credit cycle and the demographic cycle. The credit cycle is not a long wave. It is clearly short-term (around 10 years) and can be measured by the movements of interest rates etc. There is a separate page on the credit cycle. And demographic changes are separate from economic cycles in most theories. Does anyone link the credit cycle to demographics? Very few. But putting them together makes it look like the K-wave theory connects all of this...--Jack Upland (talk) 09:48, 24 January 2013 (UTC)
But was Alvin Hansen a theorist of K-waves? I don't think so. Most, if not all, downturns in capitalism involve credit crises, but these crises are necessarily short-term. The argument of K-wave theory (and related theories) is that these crises reflected deeper, long-term developments. This kind of approach seems to be an attempt to synthesise all theories of economic downturns.--Jack Upland (talk) 09:12, 26 January 2013 (UTC)
If they do not use the term, and if no source uses the term in reference to them, then they shouldn't be called K-wave theorists or included in this article.--Jack Upland (talk) 10:18, 27 January 2013 (UTC)