From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia - View original article
|This article relies largely or entirely upon a single source. (November 2013)|
|This article needs additional citations for verification. (October 2010)|
Prognosis (Greek πρόγνωση - literally fore-knowing, foreseeing) is a medical term for predicting the likely outcome of one's current standing. When applied to large statistical populations, prognostic estimates can be very accurate: for example the statement "45% of patients with severe septic shock will die within 28 days" can be made with some confidence, because previous research found that this proportion of patients died. However, it is much harder to translate this into a prognosis for an individual patient: additional information is needed to determine whether a patient belongs to the 45% who will die, or to the 55% who survive.
A complete prognosis includes the expected duration, the function, and a description of the course of the disease, such as progressive decline, intermittent crisis, or sudden, unpredictable crisis.
Prognostic scoring is also used for cancer outcome predictions. A Manchester score is an indicator of prognosis in small-cell lung cancer. For Non-Hodgkin lymphoma, physicians have developed the International Prognostic Index to predict patient outcome.
Medical studies have demonstrated that most doctors are overly optimistic when giving prognostic information, that is, they tend to overstate how long a patient might live. For patients who are critically ill, particularly those in an intensive care unit, there are numerical prognostic scoring systems that are more accurate. The most famous of these is the APACHE II scale. However, this scale is most accurate when applied in the seven days prior to a patient's predicted death.
Knowing the prognosis helps determine whether it makes more sense to attempt certain treatments or to withhold them, and thus plays an important role in end-of-life decisions.
Estimators that are commonly used to describe prognoses include:
For 19th century physicians, particularly those following the French school of medicine, the main aim of medicine was not to cure disease, but rather to give a medical diagnosis and achieve a satisfying prognosis of the patient's chances. Only several decades later did the focus of efforts in Western medicine shift to curing disease.