Minnesota gubernatorial election, 2010
|2006 ←||November 2, 2010||→ 2014|
The 2010 Minnesota gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 to elect the 40th Governor of the U.S. state of Minnesota for a four-year term to begin in January 2011. The general election was contested by the major party candidates State Representative Tom Emmer (R-Delano), former Senator Mark Dayton (DFL), and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner. After a very close race, Dayton was elected Governor.
The primary elections were held August 10, 2010. Dayton earned his spot by winning a very closely contested primary for the Democratic-Farmer-Labor endorsement, defeating Matt Entenza and Margaret Anderson Kelliher. Tom Horner easily defeated Rob Hahn in the Independence Party race. Endorsed Republican candidate Tom Emmer easily won the Republican nomination.
Early polls showed Emmer even with his likely DFL opponents, with Horner trailing far behind, and a large percentage of voters undecided. As the race progressed, polls showed the candidates even, or Dayton with a small but significant lead. The non-partisan Cook Political Report, CQ Politics and pollster Rasmussen Reports rate the gubernatorial election as a toss-up. New York Times political statistician Nate Silver gave Dayton an 86 percent chance of winning, and Emmer a 14 percent chance of winning.
Dayton led Emmer at the close of balloting by 8770 votes (0.42%). The margin of victory was small enough to trigger an automatic recount under state law, but analysts generally thought it unlikely that Dayton's lead would be overturned.
The 2010 gubernatorial election saw an exceptionally large field of candidates seeking endorsement from each party's respective convention. For the DFL and the Independence Party, this exended into a protracted primary fight that went on into August. The general election saw participation from the state's three major parties and four of the minor political parties.
Defeated in primary
After incumbent Governor Tim Pawlenty announced in June 2009 that he would not seek a third term, the field was open for Republicans to seek their party's endorsement. At the Minnesota GOP's off-year state convention in October 2009, former Representative Marty Seifert took first place in a straw poll with 37% of the vote. Representative Tom Emmer took second place with 23%, Patricia Anderson had 14%, and the rest of the participating candidates received less than 10% each.
Seifert took another victory during the February 2, 2010 precinct caucuses when he won a statewide straw poll of caucus attendees. Seifert garnered 50% of the vote, followed by Representative Tom Emmer with 39%. None of the other candidates got beyond single digits. Delegates to the state convention, however, were more closely divided between Emmer and Seifert than otherwise indicated by the initial straw poll. Although both camps claimed a delegate lead throughout the process leading up to the state convention, the outcome of the endorsement was nothing certain, and would end up being decided on the convention floor.
On April 30, 2010, Tom Emmer won the endorsement of Republican delegates over Marty Seifert at the party's state convention in Minneapolis. After Emmer won 56% of the vote on the second ballot, Seifert withdrew from the race and threw his support to Emmer. Emmer then chose Metropolitan Council member Annette Meeks as his running mate for lieutenant governor.
Emmer won the August 10, 2010 primary, earning a spot on the November ballot.
The list of candidates seeking the DFL's nomination was long going into the February 2 caucuses, with over 11 candidates having submitted their names for the candidate preference ballot. Former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton notably declined to be included on the ballot. Minneapolis Mayor R. T. Rybak won the straw poll with 21.8% of the vote, with State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher receiving 20.1%, and "uncommitted" receiving 14.7%. Each of the other candidates received single-digit support.
Former State Senator Steve Kelley dropped out of the race shortly after the caucuses due to disappointing results from the straw poll. State Senator Tom Bakk also dropped out on March 20, 2010, after announcing at the St. Louis County Convention that his chances of winning were slim.
On April 24, 2010, the DFL State Convention was held in Duluth. After the first ballot, State Senator John Marty withdrew from the race after seeing lower than expected support, and State Representative Tom Rukavina withdrew after the fourth ballot, choosing to endorse Kelliher. State Representative Paul Thissen withdrew after the fifth ballot, and before the results to the sixth ballot were announced, Rybak withdrew as well and endorsed Kelliher. Kelliher was subsequently endorsed by the convention. Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner, who had not sought the DFL endorsement but was planning to run in the primary, dropped out two days later. That left Kelliher facing Mark Dayton and former State House Minority Leader Matt Entenza in the August primary.
Shortly after the end of the 2010 legislative term, all three major DFL candidates had announced their choices for lieutenant governor. On May 21, 2010, Kelliher announced that John Gunyou would be her running mate. Gunyou is Minnetonka City Manager and was state finance commissioner in Republican Governor Arne Carlson's administration. On May 24, 2010, Dayton announced that Yvonne Prettner Solon would be his running mate. Solon is a psychologist and three-term state senator. On May 27, 2010, Entenza announced that Robyne Robinson would be his running mate. Robinson is a small business owner and former TV anchor.
Dayton won a narrow victory over Kelliher in the August 10, 2010, primary, earning the right to serve as his party's nominee. He was formally endorsed by the DFL on August 21, 2010.
On Sunday, May 9, 2010, Tom Horner won the endorsement of the Independence Party for governor. His main opponent, Rob Hahn, said he would contest the primary.
Horner won the August 10 primary, defeating Rob Hahn to earn a place on the November ballot.
At 11:50 p.m. on primary night, Dayton took the lead from Kelliher, who had held an ever-shrinking lead since the polls closed.
|Democratic primary results|
|Democratic||Margaret Anderson Kelliher||175,767||39.8%|
|Poll source||Dates administered||Tom Emmer (R)||Mark Dayton (DFL)||Tom Horner (I)||Undecided||Sampling error|
|Public Policy Polling||October 27–29, 2010||40%||43%||15%||3%||2.2%|
|SurveyUSA||October 24–27, 2010||38%||39%||13%||9%||4%|
|Minnesota Public Radio||October 21–25, 2010||29%||41%||11%||20%||3.6%|
|St. Cloud State University||October 10–21, 2010||30%||40%||19%||10%||5.0%|
|Minnesota Poll||October 18–21, 2010||34%||41%||13%||12%||3.9%|
|Rasmussen Reports||October 20, 2010||41%||44%||10%||5%||4.0%|
|Survey USA||October 11–13, 2010||37%||42%||14%||7%||3.7%|
|Rasmussen Reports||October 6, 2010||38%||40%||15%||7%||4%|
|Humphrey Institute/MPR||September 22–26, 2010||27%||38%||16%||19%||3.6%|
|Minnesota Poll||September 20–23, 2010||30%||39%||18%||13%||4.1%|
|Rasmussen Reports||September 22, 2010||42%||41%||9%||2%||4%|
|Survey USA||September 12–14, 2010||36%||38%||18%||4%||3.9%|
|Humphrey Institute/MPR||August 31, 2010||34%||34%||13%||19%||3.6 - 5.3%|
|Rasmussen Reports||August 12, 2010||36%||45%||10%||10%||4.0%|
|Survey USA||August 2–4, 2010||32%||46%||9%||13%||2.7%|
|Minnesota Poll||July 26–29, 2010||30%||40%||13%||17%||4.3%|
|Rasmussen Reports||July 19, 2010||36%||40%||10%||14%||4.5%|
|Survey USA||June 14–16, 2010||35%||38%||12%||15%||2.5%|
|Decision Resources, Ltd.||May 28 - June 2, 2010||28%||40%||18%||14%||3.5%|
|Rasmussen Reports||May 24, 2010||37%||35%||12%||16%||4.5%|
|Humphrey Institute/MPR||May 13–16, 2010||31%||35%||9%||25%||5.8%|
|Survey USA||May 3–5, 2010||42%||34%||9%||15%||4.1%|
|Rasmussen Reports||March 10, 2010||35%||38%||7%||20%||3%|
|2010 gubernatorial election results, Minnesota|
|Ecology Democracy||Ken Pentel||6,180||0.29%||n/a|
|Resource Party||Linda Eno||4,092||0.19%||n/a|
|DFL gain from Republican|
Olmsted County, Minnesota officials recounting votes on November 29, 2010
The Gubernatorial Election in Minnesota was too close to call on November 2, 2010. An automatic ballot recount occurred, as Mark Dayton's lead over Tom Emmer was less than one half of one percent. This recount was carried out by the Minnesota Secretary of State, Mark Ritchie, as part of a State Canvassing Board, which consists of the secretary of state, two justices of the Minnesota Supreme Court, and two judges of a Minnesota district court.
- ^ CNN: Democrat Dayton wins Minnesota Gov. recount
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- ^ a b "Entenza chooses Robinson as his running mate". StarTribune.com. 2010-05-27. http://www.startribune.com/local/95020199.html. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
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- ^ a b Doug Grow (2010-05-21). "Kelliher takes a calculated risk with choice of John Gunyou as running mate". MinnPost. http://www.minnpost.com/stories/2010/05/21/18398/kelliher_takes_a_calculated_risk_with_choice_of_john_gunyou_as_running_mate. Retrieved 2010-05-22.
- ^ Tim Pugmire (January 14, 2010). "Rob Hahn, publisher, joins gov race for Independence Party". http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2010/01/14/hahn-independence-party/.
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- ^ Associated Press (2010-02-16). "Hann drops out of Minn. governor's race". StarTribune.com. http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/84472182.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
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- ^ "Republican Jungbauer drops run for Minn. governor | Minnesota Public Radio NewsQ". Minnesota.publicradio.org. 2009-11-11. http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2009/11/11/jungbauer-drops/. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ^ "Republican Kohls Suspends Campaign For MN Governor". WCCO. 2009-10-29. http://wcco.com/politics/Paul.kohls.campaign.2.1278926.html. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ^ 
- ^ Mannix, Andy (2010-04-26). "Susan Gaertner drops out of governor race". Blogs.citypages.com. http://blogs.citypages.com/blotter/2010/04/susan_gaertner.php. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ^ a b "Suburban lawmaker Hann wants to be Minn. governor". Minneapolis Star Tribune. http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/50950132.html?page=2&c=y.
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- ^ By Kevin Duchschere, Star Tribune (2009-07-07). "Seifert brings his farming roots into governor's race". StarTribune.com. http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/50178732.html. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ^ "Coleman comments on gov run | Polinaut". Minnesota Public Radio. 2009-06-04. http://minnesota.publicradio.org/collections/special/columns/polinaut/archive/2009/06/coleman_comment_1.shtml. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
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- ^ Stassen, Rachel E. (2009-11-23). "GOP's Charlie Weaver opts out of governor's race". StarTribune.com. http://www.startribune.com/blogs/71589792.html. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ^ Campbell, Bradley (2009-10-08). "Chris Coleman will NOT run for Governor - Minneapolis / St. Paul News - The Blotter". Blogs.citypages.com. http://blogs.citypages.com/blotter/2009/10/chris_coleman_w.php. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
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- ^ "KSTP TV - Minneapolis and St. Paul - Seifert Wins GOP Straw Poll". Kstp.com. http://kstp.com/news/stories/S1173663.shtml?cat=1. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ^ "» Caucus night: Seifert wins; Kelliher, Rybak too close to call". Politicsinminnesota.com. http://politicsinminnesota.com/blog/2010/02/caucus-night-dfl-and-gop-straw-poll-results-are-trickling-in/. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ^ "GOP gov hopefuls Seifert and Emmer take neck-and-neck race to convention delegates". 2010-04-28. http://politicsinminnesota.com/blog/2010/04/gop-gubernatorial-hopefuls-seifert-and-emmer-take-their-neck-and-neck-race-to-convention-delegates/. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ^ "GOP gubernatorial candidate Tom Emmer picks Met Council member Annette Meeks as his running mate". TwinCities.com. http://www.twincities.com/ci_14971517. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ^ a b "Star Tribune". Elections.startribune.com. http://elections.startribune.com/returns/mgovsm.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aU1yDEmP:QMDCinchO7DU. Retrieved 2010-11-04.
- ^ "Preference Ballot for Governor: Unofficial results:Results Statewide for Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party". Minnesota Secretary of State. 2010-02-03. http://caucusresults.sos.state.mn.us/ElecRslts.asp?M=PTY&PtyCd=DFL&elr=KArks8c7PaP3E77K_3c::D3aDhUoaEaD_ec7PaP3iUiacyKUUr.
- ^ Post your comment: Title (Optional) Your comments: (2010-02-03). "Caucus night: Seifert wins GOP poll, DFLers vote Rybak". StarTribune.com. http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/83411252.html. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ^ Steve Perry (2010-02-03). "Ballot by ballot results". StarTribune.com. http://politicsinminnesota.com/blog/2010/04/ballot-by-ballot-results/. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ^ "DFL formally endorses Dayton; candidate gives them red meat before annual barbecue". MinnPost. http://www.minnpost.com/politicalagenda/2010/08/21/20781/dfl_formally_endorses_dayton_candidate_gives_them_red_meat_before_annual_barbecue. Retrieved 2010-11-04.
- ^ Mannix, Andy (2010-05-09). "Tom Horner wins IP endorsement". Blogs.citypages.com. http://blogs.citypages.com/blotter/2010/05/tom_horner_wins.php. Retrieved 2010-11-04.
- ^ a b "The 2010 Results Maps". Politico.Com. http://www.politico.com/2010/maps/#/Governor/2010/MN. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
- ^ "Election Reporting". Electionresults.sos.state.mn.us. 2010-08-10. http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20100810/ElecRslts.asp?M=S&Races=0331. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
- ^ http://www.house.leg.state.mn.us/hrd/pubs/ss/ssrecount.htm Minnesota House of Representatives, Retrieved, November 3rd, 2010.
- Official campaign websites