Lies, damned lies, and statistics

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"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point.

The term was popularised in the United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the 19th-century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli (1804–1881): "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." However, the phrase is not found in any of Disraeli's works and the earliest known appearances were years after his death. Other coiners have therefore been proposed, and the phrase is often attributed to Twain himself.


Mark Twain popularized the saying in "Chapters from My Autobiography", published in the North American Review in 1906. "Figures often beguile me," he wrote, "particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'"[1]

Alternative attributions include, among many others (for example Walter Bagehot and Arthur James Balfour) the radical English journalist and politician Henry Du Pré Labouchère (1831–1912), and British politician and man of letters Leonard H. Courtney, who used the phrase in 1895 and two years later became president of the Royal Statistical Society.[2] Courtney referred to a future statesman, not a past one.[3]

The earliest instance of the phrase found in print dates to a letter written in the British newspaper National Observer on June 8, 1891, published June 13, 1891, p. 93(-94): NATIONAL PENSIONS [To the Editor of The National Observer] London, 8 June 1891 "Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics. It is on statistics and on the absence of statistics that the advocate of national pensions relies....." Later, in October 1891, as a query in Notes and Queries, the pseudonymous questioner, signing as "St Swithin", asked for the originator of the phrase, indicating common usage even at that date.[3] The pseudonym has been attributed to Eliza Gutch.[4]

The American Dialect Society list archives includes numerous posts by Stephen Goranson that cite research into uses soon after the above. . They include:

"Sir Charles Dilke [1843-1911] was saying the other day that false statements might be arranged according to their degree under three heads, fibs, lies, and statistics." The Bristol Mercury and Daily Post, Monday, October 19, 1891
The Derby Mercury (Derby, England), October 21, 1891; Issue 9223 "Sir Charles Dilke and the Bishops" "A mass meeting of the slate quarry-men of Festiniog [Ffestiniog, Wales] was held Wednesday night [Oct. 14] to protest against certain dismissals from one of the quarries...." He [Dilke] observed that the speeches of the Bishops on the disestablishment question reminded him that there were three degrees of untruth--a fib, a lie, and statistics (Laughter)"


The phrase has been used in a number of popular expositions, including:


  1. ^ Mark Twain (1906-09-07). "Chapters from My Autobiography". North American Review. Project Gutenberg. Retrieved 2007-05-23. 
  2. ^ An 1896 edition of Journal of the Royal Statistical Society duly attributes the phrase to a "wise statesman".
  3. ^ a b "Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics". University of York. Retrieved 2007-05-23. 
  4. ^ Jacqueline Simpson (Editor), Steve Roud (Editor) (2003). A Dictionary of English Folklore. Oxford University Press
  5. ^ "Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics". University of York. Retrieved 2011-05-14. 
  6. ^ Huxley, Leonard, The Life and Letters of Thomas Henry Huxley (2 vols), London: Macmillan 1900, Vol. I, pp. 255, 257–258. [link to Project Gutenberg transcription]
  7. ^ "The Median Isn't the Message". CancerGuide. 2002-05-31. Retrieved 2014-01-31. 
  8. ^ "Lies, Damned Lies, and ‘Fact Checking’". The Weekly Standard. 2011-12-19. Retrieved 2014-01-31. 
  9. ^ "The West Wing: Season 1, Episode 21 : Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics". Retrieved 2014-01-31.