Kenyan presidential election, 2013

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Kenyan presidential election, 2013
Kenya
2007 ←
4 March 2013 (2013-03-04)
→ 2018

14.3 million registered voters
50% + 1(national) and 25% of 24 counties' votes needed to win
Turnout85.91%[1]
 Uhuru Kenyatta Official.jpgRaila Amolo Odinga.jpgMusalia Mudavadi.JPG
NomineeUhuru KenyattaRaila OdingaMusalia Mudavadi
PartyTNAODMUDF
AllianceJubileeCORDAmani
Running mateWilliam RutoKalonzo MusyokaJeremiah Ngayu Kioni
Popular vote6,173,4335,340,546483,981
Percentage50.51%43.7%3.96%
Counties won2026 + Diaspora1
Counties with 25% vote33303

President before election

Mwai Kibaki
PNU

President-Elect

Uhuru Kenyatta
TNA

 
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Kenyan presidential election, 2013
Kenya
2007 ←
4 March 2013 (2013-03-04)
→ 2018

14.3 million registered voters
50% + 1(national) and 25% of 24 counties' votes needed to win
Turnout85.91%[1]
 Uhuru Kenyatta Official.jpgRaila Amolo Odinga.jpgMusalia Mudavadi.JPG
NomineeUhuru KenyattaRaila OdingaMusalia Mudavadi
PartyTNAODMUDF
AllianceJubileeCORDAmani
Running mateWilliam RutoKalonzo MusyokaJeremiah Ngayu Kioni
Popular vote6,173,4335,340,546483,981
Percentage50.51%43.7%3.96%
Counties won2026 + Diaspora1
Counties with 25% vote33303

President before election

Mwai Kibaki
PNU

President-Elect

Uhuru Kenyatta
TNA

Coat of arms of Kenya.svg
This article is part of a series on the
politics and government of
Kenya
Foreign relations

A presidential election was held as part of the Kenyan general election on March 4, 2013. Incumbent President Mwai Kibaki was not eligible to contest as he was constitutionally barred having served the maximum 2 terms. As a result of clauses in the new constitution, it was the first presidential election in Kenya where presidential candidates would have potentially faced a second round run-off between the first and the second if no-one achieved a simple majority in the first round and 25% of the votes in at least 24 counties.[2][3] Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta was on March 9, 2013 declared by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, the President-elect after meeting the constitutional threshold. Prime-Minister Raila Odinga contested the results at the Supreme Court of Kenya.[4]

Candidates[edit]

On 24 January 2013, the IEBC begun collecting the initial batch of documents to be used for processing the names of presidential candidates who will contest. Candidate were required to present a letter expressing intention to contest the presidency and lists of 2,000 signatures from supporters in more than half of the 47 counties.[5] The following are the candidates were on the ballot after being cleared by the IEBC on January 29–30, 2013:

CandidateCurrent PositionRunning MateCoalitionParty
Mohammed Abduba DidaFormer High School TeacherJoshua OdongoARC
Raila Odinga[6]Prime Minister of KenyaKalonzo MusyokaCORDODM
Uhuru Kenyatta[7]Deputy Prime Minister of the Republic of KenyaWilliam RutoJubilee AllianceTNA
Musalia Mudavadi[8]Deputy Prime Minister of the Republic of KenyaJeremiah Ngayu KioniAmani CoalitionUDF
Martha Karua[9]MP, Gichugu ConstituencyAugustine Lotodo--NARC-Kenya
Peter Kenneth [10]MP, Gatanga ConstituencyRonald OsumbaEagle AllianceKNC
James ole Kiyiapi[11]Former Permanent Secretary, Education MinistryWinnie Kaburu--RBK
Paul MuiteFormer MP for Kikuyu ConstituencyShem Ochuodho--Safina

Results[edit]

The first round of the presidential election took place on March 4, 2013. Uhuru Kenyatta was declared the president-elect of Kenya by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission. Raila Odinga challenged this in the Supreme Court of Kenya.His petition challenging the results was dismissed on March 30, 2013.

Official Results[edit]

Presidential Candidate/ Running mateCoalition/ PartyPopular Vote% of Cast Votes% of Valid Votes
Uhuru Kenyatta/ William RutoJubilee Alliance/TNA6,173,43350.07%50.51%
Raila Odinga/ Kalonzo MusyokaCoalition for Reforms and Democracy/ODM5,340,54643.31%43.70%
Musalia Mudavadi/ Jeremiah Ngayu KioniAmani Coalition/UDF483,9813.93%3.96%
Peter Kenneth/ Ronald OsumbaEagle Alliance/ KNC72,7860.59%0.60%
Mohammed Abduba Dida/ Joshua Odongo OnonoAlliance for Real Change52,8480.43%0.43%
Martha Karua/ Augustine LotodoNational Rainbow Coalition-Kenya43,8810.36%0.36%
James ole Kiyiapi/ Winnie KaburuRestore and Build Kenya40,9980.33%0.34%
Paul Muite/ Shem OchuodhoSafina Party12,5800.10%0.10%
Votes Cast12,330,028100%
Valid votes12,221,05399.12%
Spoilt votes108,9750.88%
Contested votes----%
100.00% reporting ( 291 of 291 Constituencies)
Voter turnout 85.91% (Registered Voters: 14,352,533)

Regional Results[edit]

Regions/Counties won by Uhuru Kenyatta/ William Ruto
Regions/Counties won by Raila Odinga/ Kalonzo Musyoka
Regions/Counties won by Musalia Mudavadi/ Jeremiah Ngayu Kioni
REGIONKENYATTA %ODINGA %MUDAVADI %KENNETH %DIDA %KARUA %KIYIAPI %MUITE %REJECTED %VALID VOTESVOTES CASTREG VOTERSTURNOUT
CENTRAL1,895,07593.92%84,0104.16%4,2840.21%8,2680.41%1,6000.08%6,6690.33%3,5580.18%9060.04%13,3190.66%2,004,3702,017,6892,192,32392.03%
COAST158,08319.34%612,05774.90%10,5641.29%7,8200.96%10,5691.29%4,5940.56%3,8360.47%1,1560.14%8,5301.04%808,679817,2091,164,98470.15%
EASTERN848,23446.96%881,45548.80%12,8020.71%11,5320.64%12,9490.72%9,6660.54%8,6060.48%3,6900.20%17,4470.97%1,788,9341,806,3812,097,10586.14%
NAIROBI659,49046.75%691,15649.00%22,0611.56%15,6621.11%3,4930.25%4,6360.33%1,7300.12%2480.02%12,1870.86%1,398,4761,410,6631,728,80181.60%
NORTH-EASTERN175,03259.58%98,80233.63%8340.28%2,6570.90%14,2664.86%3050.10%3050.10%1470.05%1,4080.48%292,348293,756354,06182.97%
NYANZA181,96110.47%1,508,77686.83%15,2570.88%5,9210.34%1,9810.11%4,6320.27%4,4700.26%1,6870.10%12,8370.74%1,724,6851,737,5221,939,73089.58%
RIFT-VALLEY2,188,42272.22%707,54123.35%64,2952.12%16,2140.54%4,3520.14%8,0680.27%12,3210.41%2,3980.08%26,5840.88%3,003,6113,030,1953,440,84388.07%
WESTERN66,1855.45%755,52562.22%353,86429.14%4,6340.38%3,6320.30%5,2800.43%6,1650.51%2,3470.19%16,6531.37%1,197,6321,214,2851,432,04984.79%
DIASPORA95140.85%1,22452.58%200.86%783.35%60.26%311.33%70.30%10.04%100.43%2,3182,3282,63788.28%

County Results[edit]

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kenya_2013_elections_results.gif

COUNTYKENYATTA %ODINGA %MUDAVADI %KENNETH %DIDA %KARUA %KIYIAPI %MUITE %REJECTED %VALID VOTESVOTES CASTREG VOTERSTURNOUT
MOMBASA64,79323.79%189,98569.77%4,5001.65%3,0281.11%5,6952.09%7480.27%4210.15%1440.05%3,0041.10%269,314272,318408,74766.62%
KWALE17,63314.04%101,40780.74%1,4921.19%1,6031.28%6310.50%9700.77%6530.52%2370.19%9750.78%124,626125,601174,44372.00%
KILIFI23,38610.72%182,70883.74%2,3971.10%1,8770.86%1,5180.70%1,7710.81%1,6910.78%4440.20%2,3821.09%215,792218,174336,13264.91%
TANA-RIVER22,41934.71%39,66661.41%4570.71%3620.56%6741.04%2270.35%2040.32%710.11%5090.79%64,08064,58979,45481.29%
LAMU17,67740.02%22,96251.98%6881.56%2500.57%1,6923.83%810.18%1270.29%570.13%6371.44%43,53444,17152,34684.38%
TAITA-TAVETA12,17513.18%75,32981.56%1,0301.12%7000.76%3590.39%7970.86%7400.80%2030.22%1,0231.11%91,33392,356113,86281.11%
GARISSA41,67245.34%44,72448.67%3840.42%6940.76%3,6533.97%1100.12%1010.11%440.05%5180.56%91,38291,900115,20279.77%
WAJIR38,92738.83%49,71249.59%3890.39%1,6831.68%8,6118.59%1540.15%1480.15%710.07%5440.54%99,695100,239118,09184.88%
MANDERA94,43392.93%4,3664.30%610.06%2800.28%2,0021.97%410.04%560.06%320.03%3460.34%101,271101,617120,76884.14%
MARSABIT42,40647.18%43,84348.78%2960.33%1870.21%2,5482.83%1050.12%1420.16%340.04%3210.36%89,56189,882104,61585.92%
ISIOLO26,40155.41%14,10829.61%1460.31%1980.42%6,33013.29%700.15%800.17%250.05%2880.60%47,35847,64654,46287.48%
MERU384,29089.41%32,4477.55%1,3640.32%3,0350.71%7470.17%1,7150.40%1,2560.29%5400.13%4,4251.03%425,394429,819487,26588.21%
THARAKA128,39792.38%7,1205.12%3470.25%6120.44%2460.18%5440.39%5390.39%1370.10%1,0420.75%137,942138,984155,48789.39%
EMBU177,67689.00%15,9127.97%6820.34%1,0820.54%4110.21%1,1020.55%7580.38%2950.15%1,7270.87%197,918199,645227,28687.84%
KITUI40,75214.76%219,58879.53%4,2341.53%2,1930.79%9240.33%2,6110.95%2,1210.77%1,0520.38%2,6290.95%273,475276,104324,67385.04%
MACHAKOS35,6609.58%319,59485.89%3,2770.88%2,7150.73%9250.25%2,0860.56%2,1600.58%8210.22%4,8401.30%367,238372,078445,09683.59%
MAKUENI12,6525.02%228,84390.73%2,4560.97%1,5100.60%8180.32%1,4330.57%1,5500.61%7860.31%2,1750.86%250,048252,223298,22184.58%
NYANDARUA232,80897.11%2,8891.21%4980.21%5040.21%1620.07%5260.22%5000.21%880.04%1,7720.74%237,975239,747255,98493.66%
NYERI318,88096.33%5,6381.70%6410.19%1,0440.32%3620.11%1,0660.32%7440.22%1840.06%2,4650.74%328,559331,024356,38092.89%
KIRINYAGA231,86895.99%3,4711.44%3530.15%6550.27%2650.11%2,4381.01%7000.29%1310.05%1,6670.69%239,881241,548265,29091.05%
MURANGA406,33495.92%10,3122.43%6010.14%1,8110.43%3320.08%9270.22%7790.18%1870.04%2,3520.56%421,283423,635452,84193.55%
KIAMBU705,18590.21%61,7007.89%2,1910.28%4,2540.54%4790.06%1,7120.22%8350.11%3160.04%5,0630.65%776,672781,735861,82890.71%
TURKANA30,23529.85%68,40267.53%5330.53%3750.37%1790.18%4820.48%4900.48%1800.18%4080.40%100,876101,284132,88576.22%
WEST-POKOT79,77273.33%24,96222.95%1,3781.27%6360.58%1350.12%7010.64%3720.34%1060.10%7210.66%108,062108,783120,98689.91%
SAMBURU22,08540.94%31,08657.62%1220.23%1390.26%540.10%700.13%1960.36%200.04%1770.33%53,77253,94961,11488.28%
TRANS-NZOIA74,46637.24%92,03546.03%24,76212.38%1,0350.52%5060.25%9660.48%1,0770.54%4390.22%4,6612.33%195,286199,947244,64081.73%
UASIN-GISHU211,43874.26%60,06021.09%7,2082.53%1,2690.45%3670.13%5470.19%8600.30%1130.04%2,8661.01%281,862284,728330,61886.12%
ELGEYO-MARAKWET113,68092.07%5,9934.85%6580.53%1,0130.82%2080.17%3740.30%4420.36%850.07%1,0210.83%122,453123,474134,56891.76%
NANDI192,58781.52%20,5498.70%17,4977.41%8840.37%4630.20%5990.25%1,2110.51%2180.09%2,2340.95%234,008236,242263,25489.74%
BARINGO138,48887.93%14,8249.41%1,2010.76%5200.33%2190.14%4950.31%4460.28%1560.10%1,1450.73%156,349157,494173,65390.69%
LAIKIPIA134,11185.49%19,70212.56%4920.31%5410.34%2080.13%4930.31%4370.28%820.05%8020.51%156,066156,868173,90590.20%
NAKURU494,23980.19%105,66017.14%4,9010.80%2,3490.38%7350.12%1,2340.20%1,3050.21%3800.06%5,5150.89%610,803616,318695,31988.64%
NAROK109,41346.38%118,62350.28%9640.41%2,5421.08%2820.12%4020.17%1,9050.81%1270.05%1,6480.70%234,258235,906262,73989.79%
KAJIADO138,85152.36%117,85644.44%1,6360.62%2,2650.85%2080.08%4840.18%1,7750.67%550.02%2,0550.77%263,130265,185304,34687.13%
KERICHO238,55690.74%17,3266.59%1,8510.70%1,1430.43%4310.16%5050.19%9310.35%2300.09%1,9290.73%260,973262,902290,45890.51%
BOMET210,50192.68%10,4634.61%1,0920.48%1,5030.66%3570.16%7160.32%8740.38%2070.09%1,4020.62%225,713227,115252,35890.00%
KAKAMEGA12,4692.63%303,12063.84%144,96230.53%1,5540.33%1,2470.26%1,5830.33%1,9930.42%8550.18%6,9961.47%467,783474,779567,46083.67%
VIHIGA2,5421.52%77,82546.44%82,42649.19%5380.32%4670.28%5910.35%8020.48%3030.18%2,0791.24%165,494167,573202,82282.62%
BUNGOMA42,98812.25%185,41952.83%107,86830.73%1,8620.53%1,5290.44%2,4670.70%2,6010.74%9650.27%5,3061.51%345,699351,005410,46285.51%
BUSIA8,1863.71%189,16185.62%18,6088.42%6800.31%3890.18%6390.29%7690.35%2240.10%2,2721.03%218,656220,928251,30587.91%
SIAYA8840.31%284,03198.47%7130.25%3800.13%940.03%1890.07%3850.13%360.01%1,7350.60%286,712288,447311,91992.47%
KISUMU4,6301.33%337,23296.64%3,8351.10%5860.17%2150.06%1740.05%3670.11%800.02%1,8500.53%347,119348,969385,82090.45%
HOMABAY7250.24%303,44798.93%5570.18%2780.09%810.03%1540.05%3160.10%1080.04%1,0540.34%305,666306,720325,82694.14%
MIGORI26,0559.97%225,64586.38%6,1972.37%5860.22%2530.10%4520.17%5690.22%1350.05%1,3230.51%259,892261,215283,86292.02%
KISII95,59627.42%236,83167.93%2,6320.75%2,5110.72%9080.26%2,5650.74%1,9750.57%1,0460.30%4,5981.32%344,064348,662412,94584.43%
NYAMIRA54,07129.47%121,59066.26%1,3230.72%1,5800.86%4300.23%1,0980.60%8580.47%2820.15%2,2771.24%181,232183,509219,35883.66%
NAIROBI659,49046.75%691,15649.00%22,0611.56%15,6621.11%3,4930.25%4,6360.33%1,7300.12%2480.02%12,1870.86%1,398,4761,410,6631,728,80181.60%
DIASPORA95140.85%1,22452.58%200.86%783.35%60.26%311.33%70.30%10.04%100.43%2,3182,3282,63788.28%

Electronic Transmission Problems[edit]

There were reported a few issues with the electronic transmission of provisional results. The technology used to handle the transmission of results is highlighted here. Some of the problems include:

  1. IEBC Servers ran out of disk space
  2. Multiplication of rejected votes by a factor of eight

Issues[edit]

ICC and Integrity Court Cases[edit]

A court case was filed seeking to restrain the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission from accepting the nomination of any candidate who has been committed to trial for serious criminal charges under the Kenyan and International law.[12]

Mr Uhuru Kenyatta and Mr William Ruto are facing charges of crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court (ICC) [13] following the International Criminal Court investigation in Kenya as a result of the 2007–2008 post-election violence.

On 29 November 2012, the petitioners withdrew the case.[14] However the following day a new petition was filed by an NGO that was an interested party in the initial case.[15]

High Court Judge David Majanja on 22 January 2013 ruled that three integrity cases filed against presidential candidates and their deputies will be heard jointly. The cases seek to bar Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Deputy Prime Ministers Uhuru Kenyatta and Musalia Mudavadi and William Ruto from contesting in the March 4 Presidential Election.[16] On 25 January 2013, Chief Justice Willy Mutunga appointed five judges to hear the three cases jointly. The appointed were Mbogholi Msagha, Luka Kimaru, Hellen Omondi, George Kimondo and Pauline Nyamweya. Hearings began on 7 February 2013. On Friday, February 15, 2013 the High Court unanimously rejected the petition.[17][18]

Land[edit]

During the campaign, Raila Odinga caused as stir when he implied that that Mr Uhuru Kenyatta was among those in possession huge tracts of land across the country and could therefore not reform the sector.[19] Kenyatta responded by claiming he was clean and that Odinga should respond over his involvement with the Kisumu Molasses Plant. [20] The National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC) however through its chairman Mzalendo Kibunja stated that such statements were a form of incitement.[21] Kibunja was contradicted by Constitution Implementation Commission (CIC) chairman Charles Nyachae who said candidates cannot be prevented from discussing land issues during their campaign.[22] The recently appointed police Inspector General David Kimaiyo whose name appears in the Ndungu Land Commission's report on illegal/irregular allocation of public land [23] also added his voice asking for politicians not to debate land matters.[24] Rejection of debate on land matters also came from the Anglican Church of Kenya.

Presidential Debates[edit]

The Kenyan media announced their sponsorship of presidential debates set to be broadcast between the 26 November 2012 and 11 February 2013 with coverage from eight television stations and 32 radio stations.[25] The debates were postponed to January 2013 to allow completion of the nomination process.[26] On 25 January, the media confirmed the debates would be held on the 11 February 2013 and 25 February 2013.[27] Other organization later sponsored similar though less publicized Presidential and Vice Presidential Debates.

First Media Sponsored Debate[edit]

The debate was held on 11 February 2013 at the Brookhouse International School and moderated by Julie Gichuru and Linus Kaikai.[27] The debates were initially meant to be between 6 candidates excluding Muite and Dida. However, Muite's party moved to court and won reprieve allowing them to be added as late participants.[28] They however did not debate on physically similar podiums as the other six candidates.The debate was split into two with a break in between.

First session[edit]

Kaikai moderated the first session which begun with candidates introducing themselves and covered the following topics:

Governance and Tribalism[edit]

This part of debate centered on the historical role tribalism has paid within governance in Kenya

ICC[edit]

This section of the debate centered on the ICC Case facing Mr Kenyatta and his running mate.

Party Politics[edit]

This section of the debate focused on the maturity of party politics in Kenya.

Ownership of Migingo Island[edit]

During this part of the debate, candidates were asked to comment on the ownership of the controversial Migingo Island that has been the subject of disputes between Kenya and Uganda.

Second session[edit]

Gichuru moderated the second section which was drawn from compiled questions from Kenyans and concluded with summaries from the candidates. The questions covered the following topic:

Security[edit]

The question initiating this section was: How you plan to curb the Tana River Clashes? This question was asked by a Kenyan from Tana River.

National Unity[edit]

The question initiating this section was: What will you do to ensure unity of Kenyans after elections?

Education[edit]

The question initiating this section was: What will you do to ensure primary school students transition into High School? This question was asked by a High School Teacher (Irene Omangi).

Healthcare[edit]

This section started off with 3 questions asked by a Health worker (Alice Shiundu).

Second Media Sponsored Debate[edit]

The second media sponsored debate was held on 25 February 2013 at the Brookhouse International School and was moderated by Joe Ageyo and Uduak Amimo.[27] All presidential candidates participated.

Kenyatta's Absence[edit]

Uhuru Kenyatta had threatened to withdraw from the second debate alleging bias on the part of moderator Linus Kaikai in his handling of the ICC Case question in the first debate.

Christian Debates[edit]

Several Churches and Christian organizations supported by Daystar University held a presidential[29] and vice-presidential[30] debates which were both broadcast on the Kenya Broadcasting Corporation TV station and intermittently on several other TV stations. The debates were held at the Anglican Church of Kenya's All Saints Cathedral. The focus of these debates were issues and question that the Christians bodies identified as important to them. Aside from the lower publicity the, the debates were also characterized by poor turnout by the candidates.

COTU Debate[edit]

The Central Organization of Trade Unions (COTU) also held a debate which received low publicity and participation of some of the candidates.[31]

Opinion polling[edit]

First round[edit]

PollsterDateSample1st2nd3rdOthers
Infotrak Research and ConsultingFeb 24 - Feb 26, 20133,244Raila Odinga/Kalonzo Musyoka
46%
Uhuru Kenyatta/William Ruto
45%
Musalia Mudavadi/Jeremiah Ngayu Kioni
5%
Peter Kenneth/Ronald Osumba 2%, Martha Karua/Augustine Lotodo 0.4%, Mohammed Abduba Dida/Joshua Odongo 0.1% James ole Kiyiapi/Winnie Kaburu 0.1% Undecided 2%
Consumer InsightFeb 26, 2013--Raila Odinga/Kalonzo Musyoka
46.8%
Uhuru Kenyatta/William Ruto
44.3%
Musalia Mudavadi/Jeremiah Ngayu Kioni
4.2%
Strategic ResearchFeb 26, 2013--Raila Odinga/Kalonzo Musyoka
45.7%
Uhuru Kenyatta/William Ruto
43.8%
Musalia Mudavadi/Jeremiah Ngayu Kioni
5.7%
Infotrak Research and ConsultingFeb 26, 2013--Raila Odinga/Kalonzo Musyoka
46%
Uhuru Kenyatta/William Ruto
44.5%
Musalia Mudavadi/Jeremiah Ngayu Kioni
4.3%
Ipsos SynovateFeb 15 - Feb 19, 20135,971Uhuru Kenyatta/William Ruto
44.8%
Raila Odinga/Kalonzo Musyoka
44.4%
Musalia Mudavadi/Jeremiah Ngayu Kioni
5.2%
Peter Kenneth/Ronald Osumba 1.6%, Martha Karua/Augustine Lotodo 0.8%, Mohammed Abduba Dida/Joshua Odongo 0.2% James ole Kiyiapi/Winnie Kaburu 0.1%
Ipsos SynovateFeb 14 - Feb 15, 20132,500Raila Odinga/Kalonzo Musyoka
43%
Uhuru Kenyatta/William Ruto
43%
Musalia Mudavadi/Jeremiah Ngayu Kioni
5%
Consumer InsightFeb 14 - Feb 17, 2013--Raila Odinga/Kalonzo Musyoka
45%
Uhuru Kenyatta/William Ruto
43%
Musalia Mudavadi/Jeremiah Ngayu Kioni
5%
Peter Kenneth/Ronald Osumba 3%, Martha Karua/Augustine Lotodo 1% Undecided 2%
Strategic ResearchFeb 14 - Feb 17, 20132,500Raila Odinga/Kalonzo Musyoka
44.4%
Uhuru Kenyatta/William Ruto
43.9%
Musalia Mudavadi/Jeremiah Ngayu Kioni
6.4%
Peter Kenneth/Ronald Osumba 2.8%, Martha Karua/Augustine Lotodo 1.9%
Infotrak Research & ConsultingFeb 14 - Feb 17, 20132,572Raila Odinga/Kalonzo Musyoka
45.9%
Uhuru Kenyatta/William Ruto
44.4%
Musalia Mudavadi/Jeremiah Ngayu Kioni
6%
Peter Kenneth/Ronald Osumba 1.9%, James ole Kiyiapi/Kinyua 0.3%, Martha Karua/Augustine Lotodo 0.2%
Infotrak Research & ConsultingFeb 15, 20131,650Raila Odinga/Kalonzo Musyoka
45%
Uhuru Kenyatta/William Ruto
42%
Musalia Mudavadi/Jeremiah Ngayu Kioni
5%
Peter Kenneth/Ronald Osumba 4%, Martha Karua/Augustine Lotodo 1.3%
Ipsos SynovateFeb 13, 20131,074 §Uhuru Kenyatta/William Ruto
40%
Raila Odinga/Kalonzo Musyoka
37%
Peter Kenneth/Ronald Osumba 7%Musalia Mudavadi/Jeremiah Ngayu Kioni
4%, Martha Karua/Augustine Lotodo 2%, No Response 3%, Undecided 7%, No Answer 6%
Ipsos SynovateJan 31-Feb 2 20132,365Odinga/Musyoka
45%
Kenyatta/Ruto
40%
Mudavadi/Kioni
5%
Kenneth/Osumba 2%, No Response 3%, Undecided 6%
Infotrak Research & ConsultingJan 30-Feb 2 20132,500Odinga/Kalonzo
45%
Kenyatta/Ruto
43%
Mudavadi/Kioni
7%
Kenneth/Osumba 2%, Martha Karua/Augustine Lotodo 1%, James ole Kiyiapi/Kinyua 0.2%, Undecided 2%
Strategic ResearchJan 30-Feb 2 20132,100Odinga/Kalonzo
44%
Kenyatta/Ruto
42%
Mudavadi/Kioni
7%
Kenneth/Osumba 2%, Karua/Lotodo 1%, Undecided 3%
Smart OctopusJan 20-22 20132,400Kenyatta/Ruto
45%
Odinga/Kalonzo
32%
Mudavadi/Kioni
11%
Kenneth/Osumba 2%, Karua/Lotodo 1%, Kiyiapi/Kinyua 1%, Undecided 5%
Ipsos-SynovateJan 12-20 20135,895Raila Odinga
46%
Kenyatta/Ruto
40%
Musalia Mudavadi
5%
Peter Kenneth 1%, Martha Karua 1%, Undecided 5%
Infotrak Research & Consulting28th Dec - 2nd Jan 20131,500Raila Odinga
51%
Kenyatta/Ruto
39%
Musalia Mudavadi
3%
Peter Kenneth
3%
Martha Karua 0.3%, James ole Kiyiapi 0.1%
Infotrak Research & Consulting29th Oct - 1st Nov 20121,500Raila Odinga
35.4%
Uhuru Kenyatta
24%
William Ruto
10.3%
Musalia Mudavadi 10%, Kalonzo Musyoka 8.8%, Martha Karua 4.3%, Peter Kenneth 2%, Eugene Wamalwa 1.2%, Charity Ngilu 0.5%, Raphael Tuju 0.5%, Others 1%, Undecided 1.9%
Ipsos-Synovate24–28 September 20122,229Raila Odinga
36%
Uhuru Kenyatta
30%
Musalia Mudavadi
7%
William Ruto 6%, Kalonzo Musyoka 5%, Martha Karua 3%
Infotrak Research & Consulting17–18 August 20122,400Raila Odinga
35%
Uhuru Kenyatta
17.3%
William Ruto
9.9%
Kalonzo Musyoka 8.8%, Musalia Mudavadi 8.5%, Martha Karua 5%, Peter Kenneth 2%, Eugene Wamalwa 1.7%, Raphael Tuju 1.3%, Undecided 8.8%
Ipsos-Synovate6–17 April 20122,000Raila Odinga
34%
Uhuru Kenyatta
22%
Kalonzo Musyoka
9%
William Ruto 8%, Martha Karua 5%, Musalia Mudavadi 5%, Eugene Wamalwa 1%, Peter Kenneth 1%, Raphael Tuju 1%, Will Not Vote 1%, Others 1%, DK/NR 2%, Undecided 10%
Infotrak Harris Poll11–13 March 20122,400Raila Odinga
42%
Uhuru Kenyatta
22%
Kalonzo Musyoka
9%
Martha Karua 5%, William Ruto 5%, Musalia Mudavadi 5%, Eugene Wamalwa 1%, Peter Kenneth 1%, Raphael Tuju 1%, Undecided 5%
Ipsos-Synovate12–19 December 20112,000Raila Odinga
32%
Uhuru Kenyatta
22%
Kalonzo Musyoka
10%
William Ruto 6%, Martha Karua 4%, Eugene Wamalwa 2%, Peter Kenneth 1%, Raphael Tuju 1%, Undecided 17%
Ipsos-Synovate15–23 October 20112,000Raila Odinga
34%
Uhuru Kenyatta
24%
William Ruto 10%Kalonzo Musyoka
9%, Martha Karua 5%, Eugene Wamalwa 2%
Infotrak Harris Poll20–23 September 20111,500Raila Odinga
41%
Uhuru Kenyatta
19%
Martha Karua 11%Kalonzo Musyoka
9%, William Ruto 7%, Eugene Wamalwa 2%
Smart Octopus Limited15 August 2011--Raila Odinga
26%
Uhuru Kenyatta
23%
William Ruto 19%Martha Karua 3%, Kalonzo Musyoka
16%, Eugene Wamalwa 6%
Synovate Research ReinventedJuly 15, 20113,070Raila Odinga
42.6%
Uhuru Kenyatta
21.4%
Kalonzo Musyoka
9.5%
William Ruto 8.3%, Martha Karua 7.8%
Synovate Research Reinvented15 April 2011--Raila Odinga
38%
Kalonzo Musyoka
18%
Uhuru Kenyatta
13%
William Ruto 8%, Martha Karua 6%, Eugene Wamalwa 3%

§ Survey findings limited to survey respondents who watched/listened to Presidential debates.

Second round (Run-Off)[edit]

PollsterDateSample1st2ndUndecided
Consumer InsightFeb 26, 2012--Raila Odinga
50.6%
Uhuru Kenyatta
46.3%
--
Strategic ResearchFeb 26, 2012--Raila Odinga
51.7%
Uhuru Kenyatta
45.7%
--
Infotrak Research and ConsultingFeb 26, 2012--Raila Odinga
49.5%
Uhuru Kenyatta
47.2%
--
Ipsos-Synovate24–28 September 20122,229Uhuru Kenyatta
50%
Raila Odinga
42%
8%
Ipsos-Synovate24–28 September 20122,229Musalia Mudavadi
47%
Raila Odinga
44%
8%

Prospective Candidatures[edit]

Minister of Internal Security George Saitoti, second hand man to both Daniel Arap Moi and incumbent President Mwai Kibaki, was expected to be a candidate but died in June 2012 in a helicopter crash. His mixed Masai and Kikuyu heritage was seen as important in light of the violence that followed the 2007 presidential election and the tendency in Kenyan politics for ethnic-based alliances.[32]

Several other politicians made public their intentions to run or were speculated to run by media analysts and polling organizations. These politicians included the following:

Some of them withdrew from the race in support of the candidates or did not file their papers with the IEBC so that they would be on the ballot. Joseph Hellon, George Luchiri Wajackoyah, Dishon Kirima and Kingwa Kamencu did not submit papers to the IEBC.

Ruto, Musyimi and Nyagah opted to support Uhuru Kenyatta with Ruto being his running mate. Those who stepped down in favour of Raila Odinga were Jirongo, Wetangula, Bifwoli and Musyoka who became his running mate. Eugene Wamalwa opted to support Mudavadi while Raphael Tuju supported Peter Kenneth who both chose other running mates.

These decisions took place in the context of the formations of alliances. The law requires all Kenyan political parties to register any coalition agreements with the Registrar of Political Parties by 4 December 2012. This has resulted in several publicized discussions among key political players and their respective parties who aim to form pre-election coalitions prior to the deadline. Another likely effect of the agreements may be a reduction in the number of prospective candidates.[47]

Coalitions and Alliances[edit]

The five coalitions formed by the 4 December 2012 deadline were:

References[edit]

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  2. ^ Presidential Candidates Kenya Diaspora Vote
  3. ^ Article 138 (4) Constitution of Kenya 2010
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  6. ^ Why PM’s tour to central Kenya is causing jitters Daily Nation, 6 February 2010
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  8. ^ Raila, Mudavadi teams deadlock
  9. ^ Narc-K party to seek presidency on its own Daily Nation, 26 September 2010
  10. ^ Poll predicts a Uhuru win over Raila in run-off
  11. ^ Ntimama endorses Kiyiapi for president
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  40. ^ Updated Sunday, August 28, 2011 at 00:00 GMT+3 (2011-08-28). "Standard Digital News : Tuju joins presidential race to check Raila". Standardmedia.co.ke. Retrieved 2012-11-30. 
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